Match report →
Vasco da Gama – Flamengo1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Vasco da Gama
1.48
Total xG
2.98
Flamengo
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vasco da Gama | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.68x league average) | +0.44 | |
| Attack strength (1.64x league average) | +0.36 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Andrés Gómez not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Bruno Duarte on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Paulo Henrique on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jorge Carrascal not in squad (6 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Vasco da Gama average 1.5 goals per game at home in the league, Flamengo average 2 per game away
- Shots on target: Vasco da Gama averaged 6.8 shots on target per game in recent matches, Flamengo 8.4
Risks
- Table: Flamengo are 1st in the league with 70 points, Vasco da Gama are 13th with 38 points
- Rest days: Flamengo with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Vasco da Gama36%
Draw27%
Flamengo37%
Double chance
Vasco da Gama or draw63%
Flamengo or draw64%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.48 : 1.50, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)
- Flamengo: 10 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Flamengo: 6 of 9 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Vasco da Gama: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Corinthians: 2 goals (88', 90')
- Vasco da Gama: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Flamengo with Gonzalo Plata starting: 2.7 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (11/11 games, last 30)
Lineups
Vasco da Gama 4-1-4-1 · Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 55 G. Pereira Magalhães dos Santos
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 66 L. Soares da Silva
- 8 J. Rodrigues Júnior
- 18 M. Hinestroza Angulo
- 22 A. Lescano
- 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 9 F. Colidio
- 20 B. Souza da Silva
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Substitutes
- 19 B. Duarte da Silva
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 5 S. Sosa
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 4 A. Saldivia Vázquez
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 17 N. Rocha Moreira
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
- 11 L. Tolentino Coelho de Lima
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 30 J. Freitas
- 61 J. de Souza Cunha
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 27 B. Pinto
- 52 E. Fernandes Araújo
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 77 J. Monteiro Góes
- 39 Josmar Silva Miranda
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