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Bragantino – Santos2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Bragantino
1.55
Total xG
2.76
Santos
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bragantino | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.45 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Fernando on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Bragantino average 1.69 goals per game at home in the league this season, while Santos concede 1.62 away
- Shots on target: Bragantino averaged 7.6 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Santos 5.6 per game
- Attack: Bragantino scored 1.8 goals per game in their last 5 matches, Santos 1.2 per game
Risks
- Table: Santos are 8th with 47 points after 33 matches, while Bragantino are 9th with 44 points
- Attack: Santos average 1.62 goals per game away from home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Bragantino44%
Draw28%
Santos28%
Double chance
Bragantino or draw72%
Santos or draw56%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.56 : 1.21, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Bragantino: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (11 points lost)
- Santos: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Santos: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Santos: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Santos: 40% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 20)
- Bragantino: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 16 total)
Lineups
Bragantino 4-2-3-1 · Santos 4-2-3-1
Bragantino
- 18 T. Volpi
- 52 R. da Silva
- 16 G. Marques Alves
- 2 G. Rodríguez Ferrari
- 29 L. da Rocha Junior
- 7 E. Dos Santos Rodrigues
- 5 F. Silva de Freitas
- 21 L. Barbosa
- 47 W. de Souza Barreto
- 30 H. Mosquera Sánchez
- 8 E. Colcenti Antunes
Santos
- 1 D. da Silva
- 23 R. de Almeida
- 42 J. Santos Paes da Costa
- 14 L. Peres Petroni
- 22 Á. Barreal
- 48 G. Henrique Pereira
- 28 C. Oliva Giménez
- 8 G. Silva Bontempo
- 11 P. Coutinho Correia
- 7 E. Sousa Soares
- 9 G. Barbosa Almeida
Substitutes
- 9 I. Pitta Saldívar
- 32 J. Herrera
- 17 V. Mendonça Pereira
- 6 G. Girotto Franco
- 11 F. Dos Santos Pedro
- 19 Bruno
- 35 M. Fernandes Siqueira
- 23 A. Sant'Anna Quintero
- 12 V. Barbosa da Silva
- 1 C. Schwengber
- 4 A. de Souza Sampaio
- 3 E. Mendes Santos
- 22 G. Ribeiro Neves
- 17 G. Caballero
- 30 M. Terceros
- 34 J. Silva Martins
- 26 J. Ananias Bento
- 33 R. da Silva Barbosa
- 25 G. Menino
- 18 I. de Souza
- 32 B. Rollheiser
- 6 Arthur
- 45 V. Moreira de Lima
- 38 R. de Andrade Gonzaga
- 81 S. e Silva
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