Match report →
São Paulo – Corinthians0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
São Paulo
1.43
Total xG
2.48
Corinthians
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | São Paulo | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.66 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 10, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 18, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Jonathan Calleri on the bench (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marcos Antônio not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sabino not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Matheuzinho not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: São Paulo concedes 0.81 goals per game at home in the league, Corinthians concedes 1.56 away per game
- Standings: São Paulo is 10th in the league with 43 points, Corinthians is 18th with 36 points
- Form: Corinthians lost 3 of its last 5 league games, conceding 2 goals per game
Risks
- Possession: Corinthians averaged 56% possession and 5.6 shots on target per game over its last 5 games
- Head-to-head: Across the last 5 meetings, both teams won 2 games each along with 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
São Paulo44%
Draw30%
Corinthians26%
Double chance
São Paulo or draw74%
Corinthians or draw56%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.43 : 1.05, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:0
10%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Corinthians: scored only in H2 in 7 consecutive games (10 of 12 total)
- São Paulo with Luciano starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (22/7 games, last 30)
- Corinthians: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Corinthians with Kaio César starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (12/10 games, last 30)
- São Paulo: 46% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 13)
- Corinthians: 43% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 14)
Lineups
São Paulo 4-1-4-1 · Corinthians 4-2-3-1
São Paulo
- 23 R. Monteiro
- 32 P. Cardoso de Lima
- 5 R. Arboleda Escobar
- 2 R. Tolói
- 12 I. Amaral Borduchi
- 28 N. Araújo da Costa Júnior
- 37 A. Guimarães
- 48 D. Ferreira
- 16 D. Bobadilla
- 7 L. Rodrigues Moura da Silva
- 10 L. da Rocha Neves
Corinthians
- 1 H. de Souza Nogueira
- 20 P. Milans Carámbula
- 5 A. Ramalho Silva
- 13 G. Vernes
- 26 F. Angileri
- 49 A. Santos Dias
- 7 B. de Souza Bidon
- 37 K. Andrade Lima
- 8 R. Garro
- 21 M. Lima Beltrão Oliveira
- 9 Y. Monteiro da Silva
Substitutes
- 31 C. Coronel
- 19 L. Batista Silva
- 45 L. Marques Alencar
- 11 A. dos Santos Ferreira
- 46 P. da Silva Ferreira
- 9 J. Calleri
- 18 W. Nascimento Borges
- 94 D. de Oliveira Sertanejo
- 29 P. Gonçalves Maia Fortunato
- 54 L. Osorio Messias de Oliveira
- 43 G. Domingos Santana
- 27 J. Santos Sa
- 10 M. Depay
- 19 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 51 K. de Souza Camargo
- 23 M. Pereira da Silva
- 29 A. Rodrigues de Souza
- 4 J. de Sousa Rodrigues
- 35 C. Rigon Matos
- 11 V. Coelho Santos
- 61 D. da Cruz Lopes
- 56 G. Silva Inácio
- 18 P. Garay da Silva
- 46 H. Ferreira de Farias
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