Match report →
Internacional – Coritiba1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Internacional
1.57
Total xG
2.51
Coritiba
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Internacional | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.43 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 11, 7 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 18, 7 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Alan Patrick not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexandro Bernabei on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Joaquín Lavega on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Paulo Roberto on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Coritiba concedes 1.81 goals per game away in the league this season, Internacional 1.06 at home
- Form: Coritiba lost 3 of its last 5 matches, scoring 0.6 goals per game
- Shots on target: Internacional averaged 5.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Coritiba 3.4
Risks
- Table: Coritiba ranks 11th in the league this season with 42 points from 33 games, Internacional 18th with 35
- Defense: Internacional allowed 1.79 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.2 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Internacional51%
Draw28%
Coritiba21%
Double chance
Internacional or draw79%
Coritiba or draw49%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.57 : 0.93, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Internacional: 3.3 cards per game (38 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Internacional: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Internacional: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Coritiba: 73% of all goals in the second half (11 of 15, last 12 games)
- Coritiba: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Internacional 3-4-2-1 · Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Internacional
- 22 K. Jesus Santos Oliveira
- 15 B. Gomes da Silva Clevelário
- 25 G. Mercado
- 18 J. Ferreira Junior
- 35 B. Aguirre
- 5 R. Villagra
- 29 T. Maia Alencar
- 6 Matheus Bahia
- 28 V. Naum dos Santos
- 7 J. Carbonero Balanta
- 9 A. Barra Mansa Realino de Souza
Coritiba
- 1 P. Luccas Morisco da Silva
- 2 G. de Jesus da Silva
- 23 T. Coiser
- 55 J. Maranhão Oliveira
- 26 B. Ferreira Melo
- 21 T. dos Santos
- 19 S. Gómez Londoño
- 77 B. Vasconcelos Lopes
- 5 N. Fonseca
- 32 P. Rocha Neves
- 10 J. Soares Pesqueira
Substitutes
- 30 C. Goncalves Ferreira da Silva
- 17 N. Eliasson
- 3 G. Maripán Loaysa
- 43 H. Menke Lopes
- 26 Alexandro Bernabei
- 41 V. da Conceição Ribeiro
- 27 P. Lucas de Paula
- 16 R. da Silva Souza
- 31 A. Rodrigues Pereira da Silva
- 8 B. Corsini
- 44 J. Alves de Morais Francisco
- 49 João Bezerra
- 17 B. Ocampo Ferreira
- 14 F. Bustos
- 25 R. Cândido Coelho
- 36 V. dos Santos
- 7 J. Lavega Colzada
- 3 M. Pereira Roque
- 22 P. De Faria Rangel
- 4 R. da Silva Moledo
- 99 R. Rodrigues Silva
- 50 V. Gonçalves Tissi
- 18 P. da Silva Souza
- 66 R. Silva Nascimento
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