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Athletico PR – Vasco da Gama1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Athletico PR
1.38
Total xG
2.82
Vasco da Gama
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Athletico PR | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.50 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.01 | |
| João Cruz on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Leozinho on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gilberto on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Facundo Colidio on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bruno Duarte on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Athletico PR has 1 win in the last 5 matches, Vasco da Gama has 2 wins
- Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama won 2 of the 3 meetings against Athletico PR, Athletico PR 1
- Defense: Both teams conceded 1.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Table: Athletico PR is 5th in the league with 54 points, Vasco da Gama 14th with 38 points
- Home: Athletico PR scored 1.69 goals per game at home in the league this season and conceded 0.94 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Athletico PR34%
Draw28%
Vasco da Gama37%
Double chance
Athletico PR or draw63%
Vasco da Gama or draw66%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.38 : 1.44, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Vasco da Gama: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Athletico PR: 64% of all goals in the first half (14 of 22, last 12 games)
- Athletico PR with Luiz Gustavo starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (25/5 games, last 30)
- Athletico PR: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Athletico PR: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Athletico PR 3-4-2-1 · Vasco da Gama 3-5-2
Athletico PR
- 1 M. Pontes Moreira
- 25 J. Silva Dantas de Oliveira
- 33 J. Aguirre Tabares
- 4 A. dos Santos Barbosa Dias
- 29 G. Benavídez
- 16 J. Alves dos Santos
- 14 L. Dias
- 37 L. Esquivel
- 7 J. Mendoza Valencia
- 18 K. Calderón Vargas
- 9 K. Viveros Rodallega
Vasco da Gama
- 1 L. Jardim
- 55 G. Pereira Magalhães dos Santos
- 4 A. Saldivia Vázquez
- 30 R. Alves Barbosa
- 2 J. Rodríguez Bebanz
- 22 A. Lescano
- 5 S. Sosa
- 23 T. Mendes Ribeiro
- 66 L. Soares da Silva
- 11 A. Gomez
- 20 B. Souza da Silva
Substitutes
- 27 J. Portilla Orozco
- 6 L. Dias Gonçalves
- 10 B. Zapelli
- 53 E. Kogitzki Anastacio
- 70 R. Peixoto Nepomuceno
- 23 A. Melo dos Santos Neto
- 5 A. Costa
- 8 J. Machado Cruz
- 21 L. Caetano Silva
- 12 G. Moraes Junior
- 19 J. Rivaldo Pinto
- 55 B. Gonçalves Baldini
- 19 B. Duarte da Silva
- 96 P. de Oliveira Alves
- 9 F. Colidio
- 43 L. de Freitas Molarinho Chagas
- 7 D. Correia da Fonseca
- 17 N. Rocha Moreira
- 3 D. das Neves Pinheiro
- 8 J. Rodrigues Júnior
- 6 L. Piton Crivellaro
- 13 D. Cerantola Fuzato
- 28 A. Ferreira Soares
- 83 R. de Souza Barros
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