Match report →
Vitória – Fluminense0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Vitória
1.03
Total xG
2.55
Fluminense
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vitória | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.44 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 4, 11 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 15, 11 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Diego Tarzia on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ignácio not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Guilherme Arana on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Fluminense are 4th in the league this season with 54 points, Vitória are 15th with 38 points
- Attack: Fluminense score 1.58 goals per game in the league this season, Vitória score 1.06 per game
Risks
- Home/Away: Vitória concede 0.81 goals per game at home in the league this season, Fluminense concede 1.56 away
All probabilities
Result
Vitória24%
Draw29%
Fluminense47%
Double chance
Vitória or draw53%
Fluminense or draw76%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.03 : 1.52, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
2:2
5%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fluminense: 45% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (10 of 22)
- Fluminense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Fluminense: 73% of all goals in the second half (16 of 22, last 12 games)
- Fluminense: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Vitória 4-1-4-1 · Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Vitória
- 1 L. Assis Arcanjo
- 98 M. Silva Duarte
- 25 C. de Menezes Júnior
- 36 L. Candido de Almeida
- 83 J. Santos de Jesus
- 95 C. de Jesus Gonçalves
- 33 E. de Arruda Serafim
- 44 G. Baralhas dos Santos
- 6 L. Martínez
- 10 M. Martins Fogaça de Paula
- 91 C. de Sousa Ferreira
Fluminense
- 1 F. Lopes Maciel
- 23 C. Rodrigues Gomes
- 3 T. da Silva
- 22 J. Freytes
- 6 R. Rodrigues Martins
- 35 H. Pereira do Nascimento
- 16 G. Santana
- 17 A. Canobbio Graviz
- 32 L. Acosta
- 11 J. Savarino Quintero
- 7 G. Vieira de Souza
Substitutes
- 77 I. Laquintana Marsico
- 79 R. de Souza
- 12 D. Tarzia
- 20 L. Rodrigues da Silva
- 88 J. Silva Neves
- 7 M. Santos Costa
- 16 R. Valente Ramos
- 71 Y. Sena dos Reis Batista
- 15 W. Souza Silva
- 26 E. Santos Nascimento Filho
- 59 G. de Jesus Soares
- 9 Alex Bruno
- 90 K. Serna Jaramillo
- 30 Y. Soteldo Martínez
- 13 G. Arana Lopes
- 10 P. Chagas de Lima
- 19 R. Castillo
- 2 S. Brito
- 28 R. Silva de Almeida
- 27 M. de Araújo Pitaluga Filho
- 94 O. Passos Santos
- 14 G. Cano
- 21 I. Rabello da Costa
- 34 W. de Freitas Prado
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