Match report →
Chapecoense – Mirassol1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Chapecoense
1.22
Total xG
2.66
Mirassol
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chapecoense | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.60 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.29 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Maurício Garcez not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| João Paulo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Edson Carioca not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Bruno Santos not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Willian Machado on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Mirassol is 16th with 37 points from 33 matches, Chapecoense is 20th with 21 points from 32 matches
- Form: Chapecoense lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded 2.6 goals per match in those 5 matches
- Attack: Mirassol generated 1.71 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.8 goals per match
Risks
- Defence: Mirassol allowed 2.12 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1 goal per match
- Away: Mirassol scored 0.81 goals per match away from home in the league this season across 16 matches
All probabilities
Result
Chapecoense30%
Draw29%
Mirassol41%
Double chance
Chapecoense or draw59%
Mirassol or draw70%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.22 : 1.44, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chapecoense: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Mirassol: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Chapecoense: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Mirassol: 2.8 cards per game (29 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Chapecoense 4-2-3-1 · Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Chapecoense
- 98 A. Silva Da Paixao
- 5 H. Rodrigues da Fonseca
- 21 K. Faria Gomes
- 3 E. Domachowski
- 91 B. de Jesus Pacheco
- 27 C. Reijers de Olivera
- 88 Y. da Costa Rocha
- 7 M. de Sousa Júnior
- 10 G. Oliveira Cardoso
- 11 Y. Bolasie Yala
- 9 T. Silva de Oliveira
Mirassol
- 22 W. Capeloza Artune
- 32 I. Marques Paciencia Cardoso
- 34 J. Carroll Santana
- 2 L. da Cruz Oliveira
- 6 R. da Silva
- 27 Denilson
- 25 A. Moura Neto
- 7 S. Cardozo
- 33 C. de Oliveira Alves
- 77 A. dos Santos Batista
- 9 A. Silva de Aguiar
Substitutes
- 80 M. Carvallho Vianna
- 23 L. Marques dos Santos
- 15 R. de Albuquerque Marques
- 19 D. Antunes da Silva
- 16 B. dos Santos
- 94 K. Ramírez Dutra
- 30 M. Aurelio Palhares Guimaraes
- 29 F. Rossi Donazar
- 25 V. Carvalho Caetano
- 22 M. Alves da Silva
- 12 Fernando
- 20 B. Nunes de Barros
- 77 D. Borrero Caicedo
- 21 J. Soares de Oliveira Filho
- 20 D. Fortunato Borges
- 96 C. Ferreira de Souza
- 90 C. Lecciolle Thomazella
- 3 W. Estefani Machado
- 10 F. Hyun Sol Kim
- 5 J. de Oliveira
- 80 W. Alves Maximo
- 17 F. Marques Maciel
- 44 G. Knesowitsch
- 19 G. Henric da Silva
- 99 J. Assunção de Araujo Filho
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