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Palmeiras – Remo6 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Palmeiras
1.95
Total xG
2.76
Remo
0.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Palmeiras | Remo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.53x league average) | +0.66 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.48 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 2, 17 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 19, 17 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| José Manuel López on the bench (9 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Joaquín Piquerez on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Agustín Giay on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Alexander Barboza on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lucas Evangelista on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Zé Ricardo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Palmeiras scores 1.88 goals per game at home in the league, Remo concedes 1.81 per game away
- Form: Palmeiras won 4 of their last 5 games, Remo achieved 1 win in their last 5 games
- Table: Palmeiras is in 2nd place with 70 points from 33 games, Remo is in 19th place with 29 points from 33 games
Risks
- Defense: Remo conceded 0.8 goals per game in their last 5 games, compared to 1.55 per game in the league season
All probabilities
Result
Palmeiras63%
Draw24%
Remo14%
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw86%
Remo or draw37%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
2:0
From xG 1.95 : 0.81, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
6:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Palmeiras: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Remo: 7 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Remo: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Remo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- Palmeiras: 2.9 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Palmeiras: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Palmeiras 3-4-2-1 · Remo 5-4-1
Palmeiras
- 1 C. dos Santos Pereira
- 26 M. Cerqueira Paim
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 3 B. de Lara Fuchs
- 12 K. Silva Oliveira
- 8 A. Hoelgebaum Pereira
- 17 M. Rodrigues Freitas
- 56 A. Santana Marcolino
- 18 M. Magalhães Prado
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 9 V. Roque Ferreira
Remo
- 88 M. Rangel Rosa
- 79 M. Rodrigues Souza
- 13 M. Gonçalves Jerônimo Borges
- 28 J. da Silva
- 18 D. Tchamba Bangou
- 6 M. Lopes do Nascimento
- 26 D. Trindade Braga
- 14 L. Picco
- 8 P. Bezerra do Nascimento
- 7 J. Souza Silva
- 19 G. Pereira Taliari
Substitutes
- 42 J. López
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 32 E. Martínez Toranza
- 2 A. Barboza Ullúa
- 50 L. Pacheco da Costa
- 48 L. Torna Ferreira dos Santos
- 45 E. Machado Belé
- 14 M. do Nascimento
- 30 L. Evangelista Santana de Oliveira
- 4 A. Giay
- 7 F. Anderson Pereira Gomes
- 37 F. Rodrigues Pereira
- 21 A. Galeano Ferreira
- 2 M. Anastácio de Souza
- 22 G. Souza Lisboa
- 55 J. Araújo Fernandes
- 97 I. Quaresma da Silva
- 15 V. Frezarin Bueno
- 39 Eduardo Queiroz
- 10 J. Flores dos Reis
- 94 Y. Vinhas Oliveira Lima
- 27 J. Almeida Silva
- 77 M. da Silva Ferreira
- 35 E. da Silva Gomes
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