Match report →
Botafogo – Atlético Mineiro1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Botafogo
1.40
Total xG
2.61
Atlético Mineiro
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Botafogo | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Danilo not in squad (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alex Telles on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Arthur Cabral on the bench (7 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matheus Martins on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 58% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Victor Hugo not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Renan Lodi not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Natanael not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Igor Gomes not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 64% of goal output missing (only 30% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/away: Botafogo score 1.62 goals per game at home in the league this season, Atlético Mineiro 1.06 per game away
- Head-to-head: Botafogo won 2 of the last 5 meetings, with 2 draws and 1 win for Atlético Mineiro
Risks
- Table: Atlético Mineiro are 7th in the league with 50 points, Botafogo are 13th with 39 points
- Personnel: D. dos Santos de Oliveira and J. Barrera Herrera are absent, having scored 11 of Botafogo's 45 league goals (24%)
All probabilities
Result
Botafogo40%
Draw29%
Atlético Mineiro31%
Double chance
Botafogo or draw69%
Atlético Mineiro or draw60%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.40 : 1.21, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Botafogo: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Atlético Mineiro: 5 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Atlético Mineiro: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 17)
- Atlético Mineiro: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
Botafogo 3-5-2 · Atlético Mineiro 4-2-3-1
Botafogo
- 12 G. Batista de Souza
- 5 N. Ferraresi Hernández
- 34 E. Justino
- 21 F. Marçal de Oliveira
- 2 V. da Silva
- 88 E. Andrade dos Santos
- 75 V. de Melo Moura
- 6 C. Medina
- 29 P. da Silva
- 90 D. Pereira da Silva
- 9 F. das Chagas Soares dos Santos
Atlético Mineiro
- 22 E. Marques Pires
- 23 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 40 V. Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
- 3 L. Duarte da Silva
- 36 K. Resende
- 25 T. Pérez
- 39 M. Cissé
- 10 G. Furtado Scarpa
- 5 A. Gomes da Costa
- 92 E. Pereira Rodrigues
- 29 C. Soares
Substitutes
- 10 ?. Montoro
- 19 A. Mendonça Cabral
- 25 A. Marques Loureiro
- 11 M. Martins Silva dos Santos
- 13 A. Telles
- 4 M. Ponte Costa
- 77 L. Villalba Jaume
- 59 K. Almeida Toledo
- 17 W. Stellion Lisboa Oliveira
- 22 H. Ziyech
- 91 D. Andrade
- 33 L. Monzón
- 14 V. Franchescoli de Souza
- 1 G. Delfim Ferreira
- 34 S. Barros
- 38 H. dos Santos Nascimento
- 31 R. Pinto Alves Assunção
- 48 J. P. P. Lucrécio
- 53 P. Lemos Barbosa
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →