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Flamengo – Grêmio3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Flamengo
2.79
Total xG
3.50
Grêmio
0.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Flamengo | Grêmio |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | +0.93 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.68 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 17, 16 places gap) | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 1, 16 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Gonzalo Plata not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Carlos Vinícius not in squad (11 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Cristian Pavón not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Francis Amuzu on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Marlon not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Wallace on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 59% of goal output missing (only 39% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Flamengo score 2 goals per home game in the league this season, Grêmio score 0.62 per away game
- Table: Flamengo are 1st in the league this season with 73 points, Grêmio are 17th with 37 points
- Form: Flamengo have 4 wins from their last 5 league games, Grêmio have 2 wins
Risks
- Personnel: Flamengo without A. Lobo Silva, a starter in 3 of the last 5 games
- Form: Grêmio with 1 defeat in their last 5 league games
All probabilities
Result
Flamengo80%
Draw14%
Grêmio6%
Double chance
Flamengo or draw94%
Grêmio or draw20%
No draw86%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.546%
Under 3.554%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.79 : 0.71, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
3:0
11%
2:1
8%
3:1
8%
4:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Flamengo: first goal in 11 of 12 games (92%)
- Flamengo: 10 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Flamengo: 6 of 10 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Flamengo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Grêmio: 3.1 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Grêmio: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 13)
Lineups
Flamengo 4-2-3-1 · Grêmio 4-1-4-1
Flamengo
- 1 A. Rossi
- 2 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 L. Rech Ortiz
- 4 L. Pereira
- 6 A. Dantas de Medeiros
- 5 E. Pulgar Farfán
- 21 J. Frello Filho
- 15 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 10 G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti
- 16 S. Dias Lino
- 9 P. Abreu dos Santos
Grêmio
- 12 G. Hamester Grando
- 14 M. Rocha Aquino
- 6 G. Martins de Souza Santos
- 4 W. Kannemann
- 54 P. Crisostomo Pinheiro
- 8 E. Noriega
- 11 Tetê
- 20 M. Villasanti Rolón
- 17 D. Moreira Fagundes
- 38 C. de Oliveira
- 22 M. Braithwait
Substitutes
- 42 A. da Silva Ventura
- 18 D. De La Cruz Arcosa
- 30 J. Freitas
- 8 S. Ñíguez
- 44 V. da Silva Matos
- 22 E. Leite de Souza Junior
- 7 L. de Araujo Guimarães Neto
- 27 B. Pinto
- 52 E. Fernandes Araújo
- 49 F. Bento Alves
- 14 A. Valencia
- 77 J. Monteiro Góes
- 10 F. Krovinović
- 77 J. Borges Cabral
- 30 M. Nascimento de Paula
- 2 F. Balbuena González
- 99 J. Enamorado Gómez
- 9 F. Amuzu
- 3 W. Calvelo de Souza
- 24 T. Stallbaum
- 18 J. Maturano dos Santos
- 50 B. Schons Zortea
- 82 W. Gomes da Silva Santos
- 48 J. Borne
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