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Cruzeiro – Bahia3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Cruzeiro
1.65
Total xG
3.00
Bahia
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruzeiro | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Matheus Pereira not in squad (9 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Lucas Villalba not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| João Marcelo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Jean Lucas on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Erick Pulga on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 91% available) |
Key factors
- Form: Cruzeiro won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Bahia won 2 of their last 5
- Tactics: Cruzeiro averaged 7.8 shots on target per match in their last 5 games, Bahia 2.4
- Head-to-head: Cruzeiro won 3 of the 5 past meetings, Bahia 1
Risks
- Squad: M. Costa Pereira, J. Messias Ferreira, L. Sinisterra Lucumí & F. de Morais miss 13 of Cruzeiro's 54 league goals (24%)
All probabilities
Result
Cruzeiro43%
Draw27%
Bahia30%
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw70%
Bahia or draw57%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.65 : 1.36, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruzeiro: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (9 of 25 total)
- Cruzeiro: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Bahia with Erick starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (15/8 games, last 30)
- Bahia: 68% of all goals in the first half (13 of 19, last 12 games)
- Bahia: 37% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 19)
Lineups
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 · Bahia 4-2-3-1
Cruzeiro
- 81 O. Rezende Costa
- 23 F. Conserva Lemos
- 34 J. de Jesus Alves
- 15 F. Soares de Faria
- 27 G. Rojas
- 29 L. Romero
- 5 J. Gomes da Silva
- 99 K. Arroyo Alvarado
- 9 B. Rodrigues do Nascimento
- 8 G. Santos da Silva
- 19 K. Pinto Ramos
Bahia
- 1 R. de Oliveira Strada
- 44 M. Ferreira da Silva
- 33 D. de Duarte Macedo
- 4 V. Soares dos Santos
- 46 Luciano
- 14 E. Conrado Carvalho
- 5 N. Acevedo Tabárez
- 99 C. Olivera Ibarra
- 10 É. de Barros Ribeiro
- 11 R. Bertalia
- 9 A. Véliz
Substitutes
- 20 W. Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira
- 97 L. Rodríguez Rosales
- 67 J. e Costa Cesco
- 6 M. Viña Susperreguy
- 2 K. Moraes Silva
- 7 M. de Souza
- 22 N. Villareal
- 94 W. Maciel Sousa Campos
- 11 M. Oliveira Alencar
- 16 L. Silva Borges
- 1 C. Ramos
- 41 L. de Aragão Carvalho
- 6 J. de Souza Oliveira
- 17 G. Herrera
- 31 R. Gómez
- 77 R. Barbosa Sousa
- 23 M. Sanabria
- 43 L. Marinho Ribeiro dos Santos
- 27 E. Stum
- 16 E. da Costa Farias
- 7 A. da Silva Santos Junior
- 66 J. de Lima Costa
- 15 M. Araújo Villar
- 8 C. Souza e Silva
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