Friendly International

Colombia - Costa Rica

06/01/2026, 11:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Colombia
2.0
Total xG
2.8
Costa Rica
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
COLCR

Colombia

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-1.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 47, 34 places gap)
+0.14
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.04
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

Costa Rica

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.60
Attack weakness (0.56x league average)
-0.29
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 47 vs 13, 34 places gap)
-0.15
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colombia: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)

  • 2
    Colombia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)

  • 3
    Colombia: 55% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 11)

  • 4
    Colombia with Davinson SĂĄnchez: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (4 of 6 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

23%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Colombia with 63% and calculates 2.00 expected goals versus 0.85 for Costa Rica
  • Colombia has only 0% of the usual starting XI goal threat active according to the home squad impact description
  • Costa Rica concedes an average of 3.5 goals per away game and has shown a weak defense in recent matches, including a 0-5 loss
Risk Factors
  • Costa Rica averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 3 games
  • Colombia concedes an average of 2.5 goals per home game
Overview

Colombia host Costa Rica at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El CampĂ­n

This is a Friendly International match on June 2, 2026, 1:00 AM

The game serves as preparation for both teams

Form

Colombia's form in the last 5 games is WDWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The last result was a loss, with two consecutive losses

Costa Rica's form in the last 3 games is LDL

This corresponds to 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The last result was a loss

Statistics

Colombia averaged 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 goals conceded per season

At home, they averaged 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 goals conceded

They have kept 0 clean sheets this season

Both teams scored in 2 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 matches

Costa Rica averaged 1.0 goals scored and 3.5 goals conceded per season

Away, they averaged 1.0 goals scored and 3.5 goals conceded

They have kept 0 clean sheets this season

Both teams scored in 1 match, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 matches

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head matches are available in the provided dataset

Key Players

For Colombia: Richard RĂ­os (Midfielder) recorded 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.33, his form is rising

Cucho HernĂĄndez (Attacker) scored 3 goals in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.32

Luis DĂ­az (Attacker) contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, his average rating is 7.22 and his form is rising

For Costa Rica: Josimar AlcĂłcer (Attacker) scored 1 seasonal goal

Jeyland Mitchell (Defender) has an average rating of 6.60 in the last 5 games, his form is rising

Carlos Mora (Midfielder) provided 1 assist in the last 5 games, his average rating is 6.54 and his form is rising

Goalkeepers

Colombia's goalkeeper, Camilo Vargas, has 0 clean sheets this season

His average rating in the last 5 games is 7.12, with rising form

Costa Rica's goalkeeper, Patrick Sequeira, also has 0 clean sheets this season

His average rating in the last 5 games is 6.64, and his form is also rising

Influences

Colombia averaged 1.0 goals scored at home and 2.5 goals conceded

Costa Rica averaged 3.5 goals conceded away while scoring 1.0 goals

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