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Colombia – Costa Rica3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Colombia
2.00
Total xG
2.85
Costa Rica
0.85
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colombia | Costa Rica |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −1.14 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.60 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −0.29 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 47 vs 13, 34 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 47, 34 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Colombia with 63% and calculates 2.00 expected goals versus 0.85 for Costa Rica
- Colombia has only 0% of the usual starting XI goal threat active according to the home squad impact description
- Costa Rica concedes an average of 3.5 goals per away game and has shown a weak defense in recent matches, including a 0-5 loss
Risks
- Costa Rica averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last 3 games
- Colombia concedes an average of 2.5 goals per home game
All probabilities
Result
Colombia63%
Draw23%
Costa Rica14%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Colombia or draw86%
Costa Rica or draw37%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Colombia: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)
- Colombia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)
- Colombia: 55% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 11)
- Colombia with Davinson Sánchez: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 3 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
Lineups
Colombia 4-2-3-1 · Costa Rica 4-1-4-1
Colombia
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 4 S. Arias Naranjo
- 23 D. Sánchez Mina
- 18 W. Ditta Pérez
- 17 J. Mojica Palacio
- 6 R. Rios
- 14 G. Puerta Molano
- 26 A. Gomez
- 8 J. Carrascal Guardo
- 7 L. Díaz Marulanda
- 19 J. Hernández Suárez
Costa Rica
- 1 P. Sequeira Mejías
- 20 H. Quirós
- 3 J. Mitchell
- 5 F. Faerrón Tristán
- 8 D. Araya
- 4 A. Salazar Arias
- 22 C. Mora
- 14 O. Galo Calderón
- 12 A. Soto Ruíz
- 10 J. Alcócer
- 9 M. Ugalde
Substitutes
- 22 D. Machado Mena
- 11 J. Arias Andrade
- 2 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 16 J. Lerma Solís
- 25 L. Suárez Charris
- 3 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 13 Y. Mina González
- 10 J. Rodríguez Rubio
- 15 J. Portilla Orozco
- 21 J. Campaz
- 20 J. Quintero Paniagua
- 5 K. Castaño Gil
- 9 J. Córdoba Copete
- 1 D. Ospina Ramírez
- 24 Á. Montero Perales
- 21 A. Zamora
- 11 C. Núñez
- 6 J. Peraza
- 23 A. Madriz
- 17 O. Sinclair Hernández
- 2 S. Johnson
- 13 L. Flores Cordero
- 18 B. Mora
- 7 J. Ruíz Guadamúz
- 15 F. Samadian Khatami
- 19 S. Padilla López
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