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Super League

Winterthur - Zürich

05/02/2026, 04:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Winterthur
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Zürich
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
WINZÜR

Winterthur

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Zürich

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-0.35
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
Philippe Paulin Keny on the bench (12 goals, 3 assists)
Valon Berisha on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Zürich: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Winterthur with Alexandre Jankewitz: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Zürich: 82% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Zürich with Ilan Sauter: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Zürich: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

28%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis slightly favors Winterthur with a home win probability of 45%
  • Form Trend: Winterthur shows stable form with an average of 1.2 goals in recent matches, while Zürich exhibits negative form with a stagnant goal production of 0.8
  • Head-to-Head Dominance: Zürich dominated recent encounters with 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Zürich's squad strength is critical, with only 61% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available (Philippe Paulin Keny, Valon Berisha are missing)
  • Winterthur concedes an average of 2.18 goals per home game
  • Zürich recorded an average of only 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Winterthur hosts Zürich at Stadion Schützenwiese

Super League match on May 2, 2026, 6:00 PM

Winterthur is in 12th place with 19 points

Zürich holds 10th place with 34 points

Both teams are fighting against relegation

Form

Winterthur: WLLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)

Zürich: LWLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)

Winterthur lost 4 of their last 5 matches

Zürich lost 4 of their last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Winterthur averages 1.12 goals scored and 2.68 goals conceded per season

Zürich averages 1.32 goals scored and 1.94 goals conceded per season

Winterthur has averaged 1.12 goals scored at home and 2.18 goals conceded at home

Zürich has averaged 1.29 goals scored away and 2.36 goals conceded away

Winterthur has achieved 0 clean sheets this season

Zürich has achieved 2 clean sheets this season

Both teams scored in 23 Winterthur matches and 23 Zürich matches

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 26 Winterthur matches and 27 Zürich matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zürich recorded 3 away wins and 2 draws

Winterthur scored 4 goals, Zürich scored 12 goals in these encounters

Zürich won the last meeting 3-0 away on February 11, 2026

Key Players

Winterthur: Nishan Burkart scored 4 goals and 2 assists this season with a rating of 6.86

His form is rising with 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Théo Golliard recorded 4 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 6.88

He showed rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Andrin Hunziker scored 9 goals and provided 4 assists with a rating of 6.96

Zürich: Damienus Reverson scored 6 goals this season

Ivan Cavaleiro scored 3 goals this season and 1 goal in the last 5 games

Juan José Perea scored 1 goal this season and 1 goal in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Winterthur goalkeeper Stefanos Kapino made 34 season appearances, his team achieved 0 clean sheets

Zürich goalkeeper Silas Huber made 12 season appearances, his team achieved 2 clean sheets

Influences

The last 5 matches at Stadion Schützenwiese averaged 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 5 matches

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