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Super League

Winterthur - Lausanne Sport

05/09/2026, 04:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Winterthur
1.7
Total xG
3.1
Lausanne Sport
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
WINLS

Winterthur

Defensive weakness (2.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.89
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.02
Alexandre Jankewitz on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Lausanne Sport

Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.12
Olivier Custodio on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Theo Bair on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
Brandon Soppy not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
Morgan Poaty on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Karim Sow on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Seydou Traoré not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lausanne Sport: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Lausanne Sport: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 3
    Lausanne Sport with Alban Ajdini: 6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Winterthur with Fabian Rohner: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Winterthur: 50% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 10)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

26%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Prediction Advantage: The mathematical analysis gives Winterthur a slight edge with a 44% home win probability, expecting 1.70 home goals versus 1.37 away goals
  • Home Team Attacking Trend: Winterthur shows a positive trend in expected goals, with an average of 1.65 xG in recent matches compared to 1.27 xG season average
  • Away Team Defensive Weakness: Lausanne Sport concedes an average of 2.31 goals per away game and shows a negative form trend in goal production according to Advanced Stats
Risk Factors
  • Winterthur's Defensive Vulnerability: Winterthur concedes an average of 2.66 goals per game and has not kept a clean sheet this season
  • Lausanne Sport Player Absences: Six key players from Lausanne Sport are not in the lineup, including Olivier Custodio (3G/4A) and Theo Bair (6G/0A), which could impact squad depth
  • Lausanne Sport's Form Dip: Advanced Stats indicate a negative form trend for Lausanne Sport, whose goal production has recently stagnated at 1.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.6
Overview

Winterthur (12th place, 19 points) host Lausanne Sport (9th place, 39 points) at Stadion SchĂŒtzenwiese

Super League match on May 9, 2026, 6:00 PM

Winterthur is fighting against relegation, while Lausanne Sport is in the mid-table

Form

Winterthur shows poor form with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 games (LLLLD)

Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw against ZĂŒrich

In their last five encounters, Winterthur scored 6 goals and conceded 13

Lausanne Sport has 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games (LWLWL)

They lost their last match 1-3 against Luzern

In their last five fixtures, they scored 6 goals and conceded 11

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Winterthur scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 2.66 goals per game this season

At home, Winterthur scores 1.17 goals and concedes 2.17 goals per home game

Lausanne Sport scores an average of 1.46 goals per game and concedes 1.71 goals

Away from home, Lausanne Sport scores 1.46 goals and concedes an average of 2.31 goals per away game

Winterthur has not kept a clean sheet in any game this season

Lausanne Sport has kept 6 clean sheets this season

Matches at Stadion SchĂŒtzenwiese average 2.6 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches at this stadium

40% of the matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Winterthur won 2, Lausanne Sport won 3

There have been no draws between these teams

Winterthur scored a total of 6 goals, while Lausanne Sport scored 9

The last encounter on April 4, 2026, saw Lausanne Sport win 2-1

Lausanne Sport has been the more dominant side in recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

For Winterthur, Andrin Hunziker is an important attacking player with 10 goals and 4 assists this season

Théo Golliard contributed 4 goals and 5 assists and shows a rising form

Nishan Burkart scored 4 season goals and 2 assists, and recently shows rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 games

For Lausanne Sport, Omar Janneh is the top scorer with 7 goals and 1 assist

Jamie Roche recorded 3 goals and 1 assist, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 games

Nathan Butler-Oyedeji has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Winterthur's goalkeeper Stefanos Kapino has not recorded any clean sheets this season

Lausanne Sport's goalkeeper Karlo Letica has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Winterthur's home goals average 1.17 per game, while they concede 2.17 goals

Lausanne Sport scores 1.46 goals away and concedes 2.31 goals per game

Stadion SchĂŒtzenwiese averages 2.6 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the matches at this stadium

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 40% of the matches

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