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Super League

Luzern - Servette

05/09/2026, 06:30 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Luzern
1.6
Total xG
3.1
Servette
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
LUZSER

Luzern

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.05
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists)
Pius Dorn not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

Servette

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.43
Rising form (3.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.43
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.30
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Florian Ayé not in squad (11 goals, 2 assists)
Timothé Cognat not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Luzern: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Servette: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Servette: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Servette: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Luzern with Andrejs Ciganiks: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

27%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Servette's excellent form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches
  • Servette shows positive offensive form development, recently averaging 3.2 goals per game
  • Servette has dominated recent head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, including a 3:0 victory in their last encounter
Risk Factors
  • Luzern's defense conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game this season
  • Servette's away defense conceded an average of 1.94 goals per game this season
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a tight match with 39% home win, 27% draw, and 34% away win
Overview

Luzern (7th place, 40 points) host Servette (8th place, 40 points) at the swissporarena

Super League match on May 9, 2026, 8:30 PM

Both teams are tied on points in the mid-table standings

Form

Luzern's form in the last five matches is WLDWW

This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Servette shows strong form with WWDWW in their last five matches

This includes 4 wins and 1 draw

Servette has won their last two consecutive matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Luzern scores an average of 1.97 goals per game and concedes 1.8 goals per game this season

Servette scores an average of 1.83 goals and concedes 1.71 goals per game

In Luzern's home matches, the home team scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 1.84 goals

Servette scored an average of 1.81 goals and conceded 1.94 goals in away matches

The swissporarena has seen an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches

At the swissporarena, both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches (80% BTTS rate)

All 5 matches (100%) at the swissporarena ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Luzern recorded 0 wins, Servette had 3 wins, and there were 2 draws

The goal difference in these encounters is 8:13 in favor of Servette

Servette won the last encounter on April 6, 2026, with a score of 3:0

Servette has been the dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

For Luzern, key players are Matteo Di Giusto (12 goals, 12 assists, rating 7.45) with a declining form trend, Oscar Kabwit (7 goals, 5 assists, rating 7.18) with a declining form trend, and Andrej Vasovic (6 goals, 0 assists, rating 6.76) with a rising form trend

For Servette, Miroslav Stevanovic (13 goals, 7 assists, rating 7.35) with a rising form trend, Junior Kadile (5 goals, 8 assists, rating 7.66) with a stable form trend, and Thomas Lopes (3 goals, 1 assist, rating 6.77) with a rising form trend stand out

Not nominated for Luzern are Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira (7G/3A) and Pius Dorn (3G/4A)

Not nominated for Servette are Florian Ayé (11G/2A) and Timothé Cognat (2G/4A)

Goalkeepers

Luzern's goalkeeper Pascal Loretz has achieved 5 clean sheets this season

Servette's goalkeeper Jérémy Frick has achieved 0 clean sheets this season (in 9 appearances), while Joël Mall achieved 0 clean sheets (in 28 appearances)

Servette has recorded a total of 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

The swissporarena is a high-scoring venue with an average of 4.0 goals per game, an 80% BTTS rate, and a 100% Over 2.5 rate

Luzern scored an average of 2.0 goals at home and conceded 1.84 goals

Servette scored an average of 1.81 goals away and conceded 1.94 goals

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