Super League
Luzern - Zürich
05/12/2026, 06:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.9
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Luzern
Zürich
League
The Lab
- 1Luzern: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Luzern: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 3Zürich: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Luzern with Andrejs Ciganiks: 6.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Zürich: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
27%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Mathematical analysis favors Luzern with a 49% win probability and 1.74 expected goals
- Luzern's home offense, averaging 2.05 goals per game, faces Zürich's weak away defense, conceding 2.33 goals per game
- Luzern's more stable form with 2 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games compared to Zürich's weaker form with 1 win and 3 losses
Risk Factors
- Luzern had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which may lead to fatigue
- Zürich had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which may lead to fatigue
- Zürich concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
Overview
Luzern (7th place, 40 points) hosts Zürich (10th place, 34 points) at the swissporarena
Super League match on May 12, 2026, 8:30 PM
Both teams are fighting for a better mid-table position
Form
Luzern's form across all competitions is LDWWD
This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches
Their last match ended in a draw
Zürich's form across all competitions is LLLDW
This means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
Their last match ended in a win
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Luzern scores an average of 2.00 goals per game and concedes 1.83 goals on average this season
In home games, Luzern scores an average of 2.05 goals and concedes 1.90 goals
Zürich averages 1.36 goals and 1.92 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Zürich scores 1.33 goals and concedes an average of 2.33 goals
The swissporarena sees an average of 4.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and 5 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, there has been a balanced record with 2 home wins, 1 draw, and 2 away wins
Luzern scored 12 goals, while Zürich managed 9 goals
The last encounter on February 14, 2026, saw Luzern win 4-1 at home
The recent history shows an even balance of power
Key Players
For Luzern, Matteo Di Giusto (12 goals, 12 assists) and Oscar Kabwit (8 goals, 5 assists) are key attacking players
Andrej Vasovic has scored 3 goals in the last 5 games
For Zürich, Philippe Paulin Keny is a key player with 13 goals and 4 assists
Ivan Cavaleiro contributed 3 goals and 1 assist this season
Juan José Perea scored 2 season goals and found the net once in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Pascal Loretz, Luzern's goalkeeper, played in 36 season matches and achieved 5 clean sheets
Zürich's goalkeeper Silas Huber made 14 season appearances and kept 2 clean sheets
Influences
The swissporarena is known for high-scoring games with an average of 4.0 goals per match
Luzern shows strong offensive play at home with an average of 2.05 goals scored and is defensively vulnerable with 1.90 goals conceded
Zürich concedes an average of 2.33 goals away from home, highlighting their defensive weakness on the road