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Super League

Luzern - Zürich

05/12/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Luzern
1.7
Total xG
2.9
Zürich
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LUZZÜR

Luzern

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.02
Full strength squad available

Zürich

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.42
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
Cheveyo Tsawa not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Valon Berisha on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Luzern: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Luzern: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Zürich: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Luzern with Andrejs Ciganiks: 6.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Zürich: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

27%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis favors Luzern with a 49% win probability and 1.74 expected goals
  • Luzern's home offense, averaging 2.05 goals per game, faces Zürich's weak away defense, conceding 2.33 goals per game
  • Luzern's more stable form with 2 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games compared to Zürich's weaker form with 1 win and 3 losses
Risk Factors
  • Luzern had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which may lead to fatigue
  • Zürich had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which may lead to fatigue
  • Zürich concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
Overview

Luzern (7th place, 40 points) hosts Zürich (10th place, 34 points) at the swissporarena

Super League match on May 12, 2026, 8:30 PM

Both teams are fighting for a better mid-table position

Form

Luzern's form across all competitions is LDWWD

This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches

Their last match ended in a draw

Zürich's form across all competitions is LLLDW

This means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last match ended in a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Luzern scores an average of 2.00 goals per game and concedes 1.83 goals on average this season

In home games, Luzern scores an average of 2.05 goals and concedes 1.90 goals

Zürich averages 1.36 goals and 1.92 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Zürich scores 1.33 goals and concedes an average of 2.33 goals

The swissporarena sees an average of 4.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and 5 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, there has been a balanced record with 2 home wins, 1 draw, and 2 away wins

Luzern scored 12 goals, while Zürich managed 9 goals

The last encounter on February 14, 2026, saw Luzern win 4-1 at home

The recent history shows an even balance of power

Key Players

For Luzern, Matteo Di Giusto (12 goals, 12 assists) and Oscar Kabwit (8 goals, 5 assists) are key attacking players

Andrej Vasovic has scored 3 goals in the last 5 games

For Zürich, Philippe Paulin Keny is a key player with 13 goals and 4 assists

Ivan Cavaleiro contributed 3 goals and 1 assist this season

Juan José Perea scored 2 season goals and found the net once in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Pascal Loretz, Luzern's goalkeeper, played in 36 season matches and achieved 5 clean sheets

Zürich's goalkeeper Silas Huber made 14 season appearances and kept 2 clean sheets

Influences

The swissporarena is known for high-scoring games with an average of 4.0 goals per match

Luzern shows strong offensive play at home with an average of 2.05 goals scored and is defensively vulnerable with 1.90 goals conceded

Zürich concedes an average of 2.33 goals away from home, highlighting their defensive weakness on the road

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