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Super League

Winterthur - Luzern

05/16/2026, 04:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Winterthur
1.6
Total xG
3.3
Luzern
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
WINLUZ

Winterthur

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.18
Andrin Hunziker on the bench (11 goals, 4 assists)
Théo Golliard on the bench (4 goals, 6 assists)
Nishan Burkart on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Pajtim Kasami on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Alexandre Jankewitz not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
76% of goal output missing (only 24% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Luzern

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.05
Bung Meng Freimann not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.78
+0.78
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Luzern: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Luzern: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Winterthur: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Winterthur with Rhodri Smith: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Winterthur: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

25%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • Critical weakening for Winterthur: Only 25% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, as key players like Andrin Hunziker and Théo Golliard are missing
  • Luzern in strong form: The away team is unbeaten in 5 games, with 3 wins and 2 draws during this period
  • High goal probability: The mathematical analysis predicts a 67% probability for both teams to score and a 65% probability for over 2.5 goals
Overview

Winterthur (12th place, 19 points) host Luzern (7th place, 40 points) at Stadion Schützenwiese

Super League match on May 16, 2026, 6:00 PM

Winterthur is fighting against relegation, while Luzern is positioned in the middle of the table

Form

Winterthur's form in their last five matches is 'LLDWL' (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

Their last game was an away loss to Grasshopper (2:3)

Before that, they had a home win against Lausanne Sport (2:1) and a draw against Zürich (2:2)

Luzern is in significantly better condition with a form of 'DWWDW' (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) from their last five matches

The team recently won 1:0 at home against Zürich and drew 3:3 against Servette

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Winterthur scored an average of 1.19 goals per game this season and conceded 2.62 goals

At home, they scored 1.21 goals and conceded 2.11 goals

Winterthur has kept 0 clean sheets this season

Luzern boasts a significantly stronger offense with an average of 1.97 goals per game and conceded 1.78 goals

Away from home, Luzern scored 1.94 goals and conceded 1.75 goals

The team recorded 6 clean sheets this season

At Stadion Schützenwiese, an average of 2.6 total goals were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and 2 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record between Winterthur and Luzern in their last five direct encounters is even

Winterthur won two matches, Luzern also won two, and one game ended in a draw

The goal difference is 12:11 in favor of Winterthur

The last meeting on March 15, 2026, ended with a 2:1 victory for Luzern

Previously, Winterthur won twice away against Luzern (3:1, 2:1)

Key Players

For Winterthur, Luca Zuffi is important with one goal in 5 games and a season average rating of 6.68

Remo Arnold scored 1 seasonal goal with a rating of 6.50

Fabian Rohner recently showed 2 assists in 5 games and has a season rating of 6.56

Luzern's offense is led by Matteo Di Giusto, who provided 12 goals and 12 assists this season (rating 7.41)

Oscar Kabwit contributed 9 goals and 5 assists, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games (rating 7.22)

Andrej Vasovic scored 6 seasonal goals, with 3 of them in the last 5 matches (rating 6.72)

Goalkeepers

Antonio Spagnoli is in goal for Winterthur

The home team has not managed to keep a clean sheet this season

Pascal Loretz is the goalkeeper for Luzern

Luzern has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Winterthur's home advantage at Stadion Schützenwiese is characterized by 1.21 home goals scored and 2.11 home goals conceded per game

Grass is the usual surface for both teams

At Stadion Schützenwiese, an average of 2.6 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games

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