Super League
Thun - Lugano
04/25/2026, 06:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.1
1.4
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Thun
Lugano
League
The Lab
- 1Lugano: scored only in H2 in 5 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- 2Thun: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Thun with Christopher Ibayi: 8.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Lugano with Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Lugano: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
27%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Thun's Strong Home Offense and League Lead: Thun leads the league, averaging 2.33 goals at home
- Tactical Advantage in Shots on Target: Thun recorded an average of 6.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Lugano's 3.6
- High Scoring Trends at Stockhorn Arena: The arena averages 3.6 goals per game, with 80% BTTS and 80% Over 2.5
Risk Factors
- Lugano's Recent H2H Dominance: Lugano won the last two direct matches against Thun, including a 1-0 victory on April 4, 2026
- Lugano's Low Shots on Target: Lugano averaged only 3.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Thun (1st place, 74 points) host Lugano (3rd place, 57 points) at the Stockhorn Arena
Super League match on April 25, 2026, 8:30 PM
Thun leads the league, while Lugano is positioned in the top third of the table
Form
Thun's form in the last five matches is WWLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This corresponds to 3 wins and 2 losses
Thun won their last match at home 3-1 against Basel
Lugano shows a form of LDDWW, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Lugano won their last away match 1-0 against ZĆ¼rich
Statistics
Thun averages 2.27 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per game this season
At home, these values improve to 2.33 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded per home game
Lugano averages 1.52 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Lugano's goal record is 1.54 goals scored and 1.54 goals conceded
In Thun's matches, over 2.5 goals occurred 26 times, and both teams scored 24 times
In Lugano's matches, over 2.5 goals occurred 15 times, and both teams scored 21 times
The Stockhorn Arena has seen an average of 3.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals occurring in 80% of games
Head-to-Head
In 3 previous head-to-head matches, Thun won 1 and Lugano won 2
Thun scored 2 goals in these encounters, while Lugano scored 3 goals
The last encounter on April 4, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Lugano
Key Players
For Thun, Elmin Rastoder with 13 goals and 6 assists, and Leonardo Bertone with 10 goals and 2 assists are important offensive players
Christopher Ibayi contributed 10 goals and 3 assists
Not nominated: Franz-Ethan Meichtry (8 goals, 3 assists) and Brighton Labeau (3 goals, 4 assists)
For Lugano, Daniel Dos Santos with 4 goals and 10 assists, and Anto Grgic with 7 goals and 5 assists are key contributors
Renato Steffen also proved to be a dangerous player with 6 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Thun starts with Niklas Steffen, who kept 6 clean sheets in 33 season appearances
David von Ballmoos is in the starting lineup for Lugano
The Lugano team kept 9 clean sheets in their season matches
Influences
The Stockhorn Arena features an artificial turf pitch
Thun has a record of 8 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss with a 30:12 goal difference in 10 games on artificial turf
Lugano achieved 1 win and 1 loss with a 1:5 goal difference in 2 games on artificial turf
The Stockhorn Arena is known for high-scoring games, averaging 3.6 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate