🇨🇭

Super League

Lugano - Young Boys

05/03/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Lugano
1.2
Total xG
2.7
Young Boys
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
LUGYB

Lugano

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.79
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Daniel Dos Santos not in squad (4 goals, 10 assists)
Georgios Koutsias on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)

Young Boys

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Sandro Lauper not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 81% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.77
+0.77
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lugano: scored only in H2 in 6 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Young Boys: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Lugano: 86% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Young Boys: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Lugano with Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

29%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a higher probability of an away win for Young Boys at 41%
  • Young Boys shows a glaring defensive weakness away from home, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per game
  • Lugano enters the match in strong form with a streak of 3 consecutive wins and 5 unbeaten games overall
Risk Factors
  • Lugano's goal production has recently stalled (1.0 goals), while their season average is 1.6 goals
  • Young Boys has been the more dominant away opponent in recent head-to-head matches, despite Lugano's current form
Overview

Lugano (3rd place, 57 points) hosts Young Boys (6th place, 48 points) at Stadio di Cornaredo. Super League match on May 3, 2026, 4:30 PM. Lugano aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table

Form

Lugano displays strong form with "DDWWW" (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)

They have achieved 3 consecutive wins

Young Boys' form "WDDDL" is weaker with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

They recently suffered a defeat

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Lugano scored an average of 1.50 goals per game and conceded 1.12 goals

At home, the average is 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded

Young Boys averaged 1.94 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded

Their away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per game

Stadio di Cornaredo has seen an average of 2.60 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games (80%)

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 out of 5 games (60%)

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano secured 1 win, Young Boys 2 wins, and there were 2 draws

The last encounter on March 22, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

Young Boys showed slight dominance in recent direct encounters

Key Players

Renato Steffen (Lugano) is in rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games (season average 6 goals, 3 assists)

Kevin Behrens (Lugano) has 11 season goals and 1 assist, but his form is declining

Anto Grgic (Lugano) registered 7 season goals and 5 assists

Alvyn Sanches (Young Boys) has 9 goals and 5 assists this season, but his current form is declining

Edimilson Fernandes (Young Boys) contributed 2 goals and 6 assists for the season, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Joël Monteiro (Young Boys) scored 4 goals and provided 3 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Lugano goalkeeper David von Ballmoos has a season average rating of 7.14 and has kept 4 clean sheets at home

Young Boys goalkeeper Marvin Keller has a season average rating of 6.81 and 1 away clean sheet

Lugano has a total of 10 clean sheets, compared to Young Boys' 7

Influences

Lugano has a solid home record, scoring an average of 1.50 goals and conceding 0.90 goals

Stadio di Cornaredo is known for an average of 2.60 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.