Super League
Basel - Thun
05/02/2026, 06:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.7
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Basel
Thun
League
The Lab
- 1Basel with Xherdan Shaqiri  : 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Thun with Christopher Ibayi: 5.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Thun: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
29%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Thun is favored with a 39% win probability, Basel only at 32%
- Form and league position: Thun leads the league and is offensively stronger with an average of 2.21 goals per game compared to Basel (Avg. 1.5 goals)
- Head-to-head: Thun recently dominated with 2 wins in 3 encounters and a 3:1 victory in the last match
Risk Factors
- Basel's current form: Two consecutive losses in recent games (L L)
- Thun's squad impact: Not nominated are Franz-Ethan Meichtry (8G/3A), Brighton Labeau (3G/4A), GenĂs Montolio (4G/1A), Mattias KĂ€it (2G/1A)
Overview
Basel (4th place, 53 points) host Thun (1st place, 74 points) at St. Jakob-Park
Super League match on May 2, 2026, 8:30 PM
Thun leads the table convincingly and is mathematically favored with a 39% probability to win
Basel's win probability is 32%, while a draw is calculated at 29%
Form
Basel's form in the last five games is WWDLL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
The last two games resulted in losses for Basel
Thun's form in the last five matches is WLLWL (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses)
Thun suffered a loss in their last game
Basel is currently scoring more frequently (Avg. 1.8 goals) than their season average (Avg. 1.5 goals)
Thun is consistently scoring (Avg. 2.3 goals per game)
Statistics
Basel scores an average of 1.5 goals per game and concedes 1.38 goals
Both teams scored in 21 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 20 games
At home, Basel scores an average of 1.47 goals and concedes 1.0 goal
Thun is very strong offensively with an average of 2.21 goals per game and concedes only 1.12 goals
Both teams scored in 24 of Thun's games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 26 games
Away from home, Thun scores an average of 2.2 goals and concedes 1.13 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, Basel secured 1 win, while Thun achieved 2 wins
There have been no draws between the teams
The goal difference is 5:6 in favor of Thun
The last encounter on April 18, 2026, ended with a 3:1 victory for Thun
Key Players
For Basel, Bénie Traoré (9 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.99 rating) is relevant with stable performances
Metinho recently showed rising form (2 goals in the last 5 games, Avg. 7.34 rating)
Dominik Schmid (3 goals, 5 assists, Avg. 7.32 rating) is important in defense
For Thun, Elmin Rastoder (13 goals, 6 assists, Avg. 7.06 rating) is a key player with stable form
Christopher Ibayi (10 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 6.97 rating) and Leonardo Bertone (10 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.04 rating) also significantly contribute to goal threat
Goalkeepers
Basel's goalkeeper, Mirko Salvi, defended 9 clean sheets for his team this season
Thun's goalkeeper is Niklas Steffen, and the team achieved 6 clean sheets
Influences
St. Jakob-Park has seen an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
Basel scores an average of 1.47 goals at home and concedes 1.0 goal
Thun is very strong offensively away from home with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded per game