Super League
Lugano - St. Gallen
05/10/2026, 12:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.3
1.7
1:1
11%1:2
9%2:1
8%2:2
7%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Lugano
St. Gallen
League
The Lab
- 1Lugano: scored only in H2 in 7 consecutive games (7 of 8 total)
- 2Lugano: 94% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- 3St. Gallen: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 4Lugano: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 5St. Gallen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
26%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: St. Gallen is slightly favored with a win probability of 42%
- Current form: Lugano is in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches
- Head-to-head record: St. Gallen dominated the last 5 encounters with 3 wins and 2 draws
Risk Factors
- Lugano are missing D. dos Santos Correia and G. Koutsias, leaving only 71% of usual starting XI assists available
- Lugano's recent goal production has slowed to 1.0 goals, compared to their season average of 1.6 goals
- St. Gallen's recent goal production has slowed to 1.4 goals, compared to their season average of 2.0 goals
Overview
Lugano (3rd place, 57 points) host St. Gallen (2nd place, 60 points) at the Stadio di Cornaredo
Super League match on May 10, 2026, 2:00 PM
A top-of-the-table clash for important points in the upper half of the standings
Form
Home team Lugano shows strong form with a record of DWWWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five matches
Lugano recorded four consecutive wins recently
St. Gallen displays more inconsistent form DWDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) and lost their last game
Statistics
Lugano scores an average of 1.49 goals per game and concedes 1.09 goals per game
At home, Lugano scores an average of 1.48 goals and concedes only 0.86 goals
St. Gallen has a season average of 1.89 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded
Away from home, St. Gallen scores an average of 1.89 goals and concedes 1.22 goals
The Stadio di Cornaredo sees an average of 2.4 goals per game
In 60% of matches at Stadio di Cornaredo, both teams score and over 2.5 goals are tallied
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano has not secured a win
St. Gallen won 3 matches, while 2 ended in a draw
The goal difference of 4:8 favors St. Gallen
The last encounter on March 17, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw
Key Players
Anto Grgic (7 goals, 6 assists) showed stable form in his last 5 appearances with an average rating of 7.19
Kevin Behrens is an important attacker with 11 season goals, his form has recently declined slightly
Renato Steffen (7 goals, 3 assists) is in rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games
Alessandro Vogt is St. Gallen's top scorer with 15 season goals, his form has recently declined
Lukas Gƶrtler (8 goals, 8 assists) has a high involvement in goals, his form has recently declined
Carlo Boukhalfa (11 goals, 3 assists) is another important midfielder whose form has recently declined
Goalkeepers
Lugano has recorded 11 clean sheets this season, while St. Gallen has 8 clean sheets
Lugano's goalkeeper David von Ballmoos has achieved an average rating of 7.12 in 12 appearances
St. Gallen's goalkeeper Lawrence Ati Zigi has an average rating of 7.00 in 32 appearances
Influences
Lugano scores an average of 1.48 goals at home and concedes only 0.86 goals, suggesting a home advantage
The Stadio di Cornaredo records an average of 2.4 goals per game
In 60% of matches at the stadium, both teams score and over 2.5 goals are recorded