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Super League

Young Boys - Basel

05/10/2026, 02:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Young Boys
2.5
Total xG
3.9
Basel
1.4
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%

3:2

5%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
YBBAS

Young Boys

Attack strength (1.2x league average)
+1.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.20
Alan Virginius on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists)
Armin Gigovic on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Basel

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.04
Dominik Schmid not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists)
Ibrahim Salah on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Albian Ajeti on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
32% of goal output missing (only 61% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Young Boys: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Basel with Flavius Daniliuc: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Young Boys with Ebrima Colley: 5.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Young Boys: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

20%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

91%

Under 1.5

9%

Over 2.5

75%

Under 2.5

25%

Over 3.5

55%

Under 3.5

45%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

71%

No

29%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 60% probability and 2.51 expected home goals
  • Young Boys show a strong offense at home with an average of 1.85 goals per game, while Basel concede 1.76 goals away
  • Basel's positive form trend with a recent average of 1.8 goals contrasts with Young Boys' stagnating goal production (1.2 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Basel are missing key players: Dominik Schmid, Ibrahim Salah, and Albian Ajeti, reducing the usual starting eleven strength to 62%
  • Young Boys' goal production has recently declined (1.2 goals on average), compared to their season average of 1.9 goals
  • Both teams scored in 71% of matches, and over 2.5 goals are predicted with a 75% probability
Overview

Young Boys (6th place, 48 points) host Basel (4th place, 53 points) at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern. The Super League match takes place on May 10, 2026, 4:30 PM. Basel is fighting to secure a European qualification spot, while Young Boys aim to climb higher in the table.

Form

Young Boys' current form is DDDLL, which equates to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games. Their last result was a loss, and they have suffered two consecutive losses recently. Basel's form is WDLLW, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches. Basel won their last game. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. According to the advanced analysis, Young Boys' goal production has recently stalled (1.2 goals), while Basel is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals).

Statistics

Young Boys averaged 1.89 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they averaged 1.85 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded. Basel averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.37 goals conceded per game. Away, they averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.76 goals conceded. Young Boys kept 7 clean sheets, while Basel recorded 9. At Stadion Wankdorf, an average of 2.6 goals were scored per game. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games (80%), and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games (60%).

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Young Boys recorded 2 wins, Basel 1 win, and there were 2 draws. Young Boys scored a total of 12 goals compared to Basel's 10. The last encounter ended in a 3-3 draw on April 4, 2026. The home team has been recently dominant in direct duels.

Key Players

For Young Boys, Chris Bedia stands out with 16 goals and 4 assists, plus 1 goal in the last 5 games. Alvyn Sanches scored 9 goals and 5 assists this season. Edimilson Fernandes contributed 2 goals and 6 assists, with 1 goal in the last 5 games. For Basel, Bénie Traoré was successful with 9 goals and 3 assists, as well as 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 matches. Metinho scored 3 seasonal goals and scored once in the last 5 games. Julien Duranville has 2 goals and 1 assist this season, with 1 goal in the last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Young Boys' goalkeeper, Marvin Keller, has made 35 appearances. Basel will be represented by Mirko Salvi in goal, who has played 3 games this season. Young Boys recorded 7 clean sheets this season, while Basel achieved 9 clean sheets.

Influences

Stadion Wankdorf in Bern has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in recent matches. Both teams scored in 80% of games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%. Young Boys showed a strong offense at home with an average of 1.85 goals scored per game, while conceding only 1.1 goals on average.

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