🇨🇭
Super League
Thun - Young Boys
05/14/2026, 02:30 PM
3 : 8
Expected Goals
Thun
2.0
Total xG
3.8
Young Boys
1.8
Most Likely Scores
2:1
8%2:2
7%1:2
7%3:1
5%3:2
5%What influences the xG?
THUYB
Thun
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.58
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.41
Declining form (1 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.35
Franz-Ethan Meichtry not in squad (8 goals, 3 assists)
Genís Montolio not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Young Boys
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Alan Virginius on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists)
Joël Monteiro on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Armin Gigovic on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 71% available)
League
High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.74
+0.74
The Lab
- 1Thun with Christopher Ibayi: 3.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Young Boys: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 3Young Boys with Stefan Bukinac: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Young Boys: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Thun: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
23%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
91%
Under 1.5
9%
Over 2.5
74%
Under 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
53%
Under 3.5
47%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
74%
No
26%
Key Factors
- Pipeline analysis: Thun has a home win probability of 43%, Young Boys 34%
- Home advantage and pitch condition: Thun has a strong record of 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses on artificial turf
- Opponent's defensive weakness: Young Boys concede an average of 2.73 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Thun's form trend: Goal production has recently dropped to 1.0 goals per game, below the season average of 2.2
- Young Boys' absentees: Only 72% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, with Alan Virginius (4G/7A), Joël Monteiro (4G/3A), Armin Gigovic (1G/2A) not in the lineup