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Super League

Basel - St. Gallen

05/14/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Basel
1.8
Total xG
3.3
St. Gallen
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
BASSG

Basel

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Albian Ajeti on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Andrej Bacanin on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2 vs 1.5 goals/match)

St. Gallen

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Attack strength (1.37x league average)
+0.04
Hugo Vandermersch not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Lukas Daschner on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Jozo Stanic not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.74
+0.74
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Gallen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    St. Gallen with Mihailo Stevanovic: 4.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Basel with Xherdan Shaqiri  : 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    St. Gallen: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

26%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

42%

Under 3.5

58%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The model projects a 42% chance for a home win for Basel, with a 68% probability for a home win or a draw
  • St. Gallen's Stronger Form & H2H Dominance: St. Gallen enters the match with better recent form (3 wins in 5 games) and a dominant head-to-head record (undefeated in the last 5 direct duels with 3 wins)
  • High Goal Potential: The statistical model predicts a high probability for 'Both Teams To Score' (66%) and 'Over 2.5 Goals' (64%), supported by the venue's average of 4.6 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Basel's Defensive Vulnerability: Basel's recent goals conceded average (2.4) is significantly higher than their season average (1.56)
  • St. Gallen's Absences: St. Gallen is without C. Witzig (4 goals, 4 assists) and H. Vandermersch (2 goals, 2 assists), which could impact their attacking and defensive capabilities
  • Basel's Declining Form: Basel's overall form trend is declining, with 3 losses in their last 5 league matches (DLLWL)
Overview

Basel (4th place, 53 points) host St. Gallen (2nd place, 60 points) at St. Jakob-Park. The Super League match takes place on May 14, 2026, 4:30 PM. Basel aim to close the gap to the top spots, while St. Gallen look to solidify their position

Form

Basel's form in the last 5 matches is DLLWL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). Their last result was a 0-3 away loss against Young Boys. St. Gallen, on the other hand, shows stronger form with WDWLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). They won their last away match against Lugano with a score of 2-1. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Basel has scored an average of 1.50 goals per game this season and conceded 1.42 goals. At home, the average is 1.47 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded. St. Gallen is stronger offensively with an average of 1.89 goals per game and 1.25 goals conceded. Away from home, they score 1.89 times and concede 1.21 goals. Basel's matches saw both teams score in 22 instances and over 2.5 goals in 22 instances. St. Gallen's matches show BTTS in 26 instances and over 2.5 goals in 26 instances. St. Jakob-Park has an average of 4.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals occurring in 4 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Gallen secured 3 away wins and there were 2 draws. Basel has not won any of the last 5 encounters. The goal difference from these matches is 4:9 in favor of St. Gallen. The last meeting ended with a 0-3 away win for St. Gallen on March 8, 2026

Key Players

For Basel, Xherdan Shaqiri is a key player with 11 goals and 10 assists, an average season rating of 7.35, though his form trend is declining. Bénie Traoré scored 9 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 6.99 and shows stable form. Dominik Schmid, a defender, has 3 goals and 5 assists with an average rating of 7.31, his form is declining. For St. Gallen, Alessandro Vogt stands out with 15 goals and 3 assists, his form is declining. Lukas Görtler has scored 9 goals and 8 assists, his form is stable, and he scored 3 goals in his last 5 games. Aliou Baldé scored 10 goals, his form is stable, and he scored 2 goals in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Marwin Hitz is Basel's goalkeeper, achieving 9 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 7.16. Lawrence Ati Zigi is St. Gallen's goalkeeper, recording 8 clean sheets with an average rating of 7.02

Influences

Basel's home advantage this season is noticeable with an average of 1.47 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded at St. Jakob-Park. The stadium statistics show a high average of 4.6 goals per game. Furthermore, over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of the last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 80%

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