Super League
Lugano - Basel
05/17/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.6
1.7
2:1
8%1:2
7%2:2
7%3:1
6%3:2
5%What influences the xG?
Lugano
Basel
League
The Lab
- 1Lugano: scored only in H2 in 7 consecutive games (7 of 8 total)
- 2Lugano: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 3Lugano: 92% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- 4Lugano with Pablo Acebal: 6.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Basel with Andrej Bacanin: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
24%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
70%
Under 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
49%
Under 3.5
51%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
71%
No
29%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis sees Lugano as favorites with a 43% home win probability
- Form difference: Lugano shows better form with 3 wins and 1 draw compared to Basel's 1 win and 4 losses
- Lugano's offensive strength: Averaged 5.8 shots on target in the last 5 games, while Basel averaged 4.4 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Lugano's declining goal production: Currently 1.3 goals per game, below the season average of 1.6
- Basel's high away goals conceded rate: An average of 1.94 goals conceded per away game
Overview
Lugano (3rd place, 57 points) host Basel (4th place, 53 points) at Stadio di Cornaredo
Super League match on May 17, 2026, 4:30 PM
Both teams are fighting for important points in the upper third of the table
Form
Lugano shows a form of WWWLD
This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 games
The last appearance ended in a draw
Basel is in a more difficult phase with a form of LLWLL
The team recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 matches
Basel suffered 2 consecutive losses recently
Statistics
Lugano scores an average of 1.49 goals and concedes 1.14 goals per game this season
At home, Lugano averages 1.45 goals scored and concedes 0.91 goals
Basel also scores 1.49 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.46 goals
Away, Basel's goal average is 1.53, while they concede 1.94 goals per away game
At Stadio di Cornaredo, an average of 2.4 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches
In 3 out of 5 games at this stadium, both teams scored, and more than 2.5 goals were scored
Lugano's goal production is currently stagnant (1.3 goals), the season average is 1.6 goals
Basel's goal production is also stagnant (1.0 goals), the season average is 1.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, the record is even
Lugano and Basel each recorded 2 wins
1 match ended in a draw
The goal difference is 7:9 in favor of Basel
The last encounter on February 15, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw
Key Players
For Lugano, Kevin Behrens (11 goals, 2 assists), Renato Steffen (7 goals, 3 assists), and Uran Bislimi (5 goals, 3 assists) are important players
Renato Steffen's form trend is rising, while Kevin Behrens' and Uran Bislimi's is declining
Not in the lineup for Lugano are Anto Grgic (7 goals, 6 assists) and Georgios Koutsias (5 goals, 3 assists)
For Basel, Albian Ajeti (4 goals, 1 assist), Dominik Schmid (3 goals, 5 assists), and Ibrahim Salah (3 goals, 3 assists) are significant
Albian Ajeti's form is stable, while Dominik Schmid's and Ibrahim Salah's is declining
Not in the lineup for Basel are Bénie Traoré (9 goals, 3 assists), Metinho (3 goals, 0 assists), Nicolas Vouilloz (1 goal, 2 assists), and Giacomo Koloto (2 goals, 0 assists)
Goalkeepers
Lugano's goalkeeper David von Ballmoos played in 14 season games
Basel relies on Mirko Salvi, who has been deployed in 4 season games
Lugano recorded 11 clean sheets this season
Basel achieved 9 clean sheets
Influences
Lugano enjoys the home advantage at Stadio di Cornaredo
The team scored an average of 1.45 goals at home and conceded 0.91 goals
Basel concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
An average of 2.4 goals are scored per game at the stadium
The playing surface is grass