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Super League

St. Gallen - Thun

05/17/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
St. Gallen
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Thun
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SGTHU

St. Gallen

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.45
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.07
Alessandro Vogt on the bench (15 goals, 3 assists)
Lukas Görtler on the bench (9 goals, 8 assists)
Aliou Baldé not in squad (11 goals, 0 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 58% available)

Thun

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.13
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.13
Christopher Ibayi not in squad (10 goals, 4 assists)
Leonardo Bertone not in squad (11 goals, 2 assists)
Fabio Fehr on the bench (2 goals, 7 assists)
Marco Bürki not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Jan Bamert not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.78
+0.78
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Thun with Christopher Ibayi: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    St. Gallen: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    St. Gallen: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    St. Gallen: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 5
    St. Gallen with Mihailo Stevanovic: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

29%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • St. Gallen's current form with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches is convincing
  • Thun's recent negative run of 4 losses from their last 5 games, with an average of 3.5 goals conceded recently, is alarming
  • Despite Thun's league lead, the mathematical analysis sees a slight advantage for St. Gallen with a home win probability of 38%
Risk Factors
  • St. Gallen's offense is limited with only 59% of their usual starting eleven strength due to missing key players like Alessandro Vogt (15 goals/3 assists)
  • Both teams face high demands with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Thun displayed an extremely vulnerable defense in their last 5 games, conceding an average of 3.5 goals
Overview

St. Gallen (2nd place, 60 points) host Thun (1st place, 74 points) at Kybunpark

Super League match on May 17, 2026, 4:30 PM

The hosts are aiming to close the gap to the league leaders

Form

St. Gallen's form (DWLWW) shows 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Their last outing resulted in a win (W)

Thun's form (WLLLL) is weaker with 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last outing resulted in a loss (L)

Form string explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

St. Gallen averages 1.92 goals scored per game and concedes 1.24 goals per game

At home, they average 1.88 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per home game

Thun is stronger offensively with an average of 2.14 goals scored per game and concedes 1.38 goals per game

Away, Thun averages 2.12 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per away game

The Kybunpark averages 2.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches at Kybunpark

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches at Kybunpark

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, St. Gallen and Thun each have 1 win, with 1 draw

St. Gallen scored 4 goals, while Thun scored 5 goals

The last encounter on March 5, 2026, ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

St. Gallen: Carlo Boukhalfa has 12 goals and 3 assists with a season average rating of 6.93

Chima Okoroji contributed 3 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 6.92

Jozo Stanic has scored 2 goals and provided 0 assists in 32 appearances, with a rating of 7.00

Thun: Elmin Rastoder is the top scorer with 15 goals and 6 assists, and a rating of 7.07

Kastriot Imeri recorded 6 goals and 7 assists with a rating of 6.98

Michael Heule has contributed 1 goal and 7 assists with a rating of 7.01

Goalkeepers

Lawrence Ati Zigi of St. Gallen has kept 8 clean sheets this season

Tim Spycher of Thun has recorded 0 clean sheets in 2 season appearances

Influences

The home venue Kybunpark has seen an average of 2.8 goals in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches at Kybunpark

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the matches at Kybunpark

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