La Liga
Elche - Sevilla
01/19/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.8
1.3
0.5
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
30%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
25%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Elche strong at home with only 0.62 goals conceded per game
- Sevilla weak away: 4 defeats in a row, 1.75 goals conceded/game
- Home advantage at Estadio Martínez Valero: 80% Over 2.5 rate
Risk Factors
- Sevilla historically superior with 2:0 wins in head-to-head
- Several players from both teams with unclear injury status
Overview
Elche (11th place, 23 points) host Sevilla (16th place, 20 points) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero. La Liga match on January 19, 2026, 9:00 PM. Battle for important points between secure mid-table team and relegation candidates.
Form
Elche: WWLDL - 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses. Sevilla: WLLLL - 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses. Sevilla with negative run of 4 consecutive losses before last win, Elche more stable with only 1 defeat in last 5 games.
Statistics
Elche: 1.32 goals/game, 1.26 goals conceded/game. Sevilla: 1.26 goals/game, 1.58 goals conceded/game. Clear home advantage for Elche: at home 1.31 goals, only 0.62 conceded. Sevilla weak away with 1.25 goals, 1.75 conceded. BTTS in 12 of 19 Elche games, 10 of 19 Sevilla games.
Head-to-Head
5 direct meetings: Elche 0 wins, Sevilla 2 wins, 3 draws. Goal ratio 4:9 for Sevilla. Last encounter: 2:2 in September 2025. Sevilla with recentDominant as away team historically superior.
Key Players
Álvaro Rodríguez (3 goals, 4 assists, 7.16 last 5 games). Martim Neto with 2 goals in 5 games, 6.97 rating. Léo Pétrot with 1 goal, 7.22 rating last 5. For Sevilla: Isaac Romero (3 goals), Lucien Agoumé with 7.03 rating last 5 games. Odysseas Vlachodimos consistent with 7.03 rating.
Goalkeepers
Iñaki Peña confirmed for Elche with 7.45 rating last 5 games. Odysseas Vlachodimos for Sevilla with 7.03 rating last 5 games. Both goalkeepers in good form.
Influences
Stadium characteristics: 3.4 goals/game, 60% BTTS, 80% Over 2.5. Home advantage for Elche: at home only 0.62 goals conceded/game vs 2.67 away. Sevilla away problematic with 1.75 goals conceded/game. Grass surface record: Elche 4W-2D-4L, Sevilla 3W-1D-6L.