La Liga
Sevilla - Athletic Club
01/24/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.1
1.7
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
36%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
28%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
59%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
64%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Extreme form contrast: Sevilla's attack has collapsed (0.4 goals on average in recent games) and their form is disastrous with 'LLLLD', while Athletic Club shows a positive trend with an average of 2.2 goals recently.
- Historical dominance by Athletic: The visitors are unbeaten in the last five head-to-head matches (4 wins, 1 draw) and have a clear goal difference of 9:3.
- Weakening due to absences on both sides: Sevilla is missing several attacking players, but Athletic must do without the red-hot striker Gorka Guruzeta (4 goals in 5 games), significantly reducing their firepower.
Risk Factors
- Athletic's vulnerable away defense: Despite good form, Athletic Club concedes an average of 1.89 goals per game away from home.
- Unpredictability due to many absences: With both teams missing numerous key players, usual tactical patterns could be disrupted, making the match unpredictable.
- Contradictory goal statistics: Recent games at the stadium have been extremely low-scoring (0% BTTS), while both teams' season stats and Athletic's form suggest goals are possible.
Overview
Sevilla, in 14th place with 21 points, hosts Athletic Club, 10th with 24 points, at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. The La Liga match will take place on January 24, 2026, at 6:30 PM. This is a crucial mid-table clash where both teams will be looking to pull away from the bottom half of the table.
Form
Sevilla is in a form crisis with a record of LLLLD from their last five matches, which translates to zero wins, one draw, and four losses. In contrast, Athletic Club shows more inconsistent form with a record of LDWLW, meaning two wins, one draw, and two losses, giving them a clear advantage in form. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Statistically, Sevilla scores an average of 1.3 goals per game this season and concedes 1.6. Athletic Club is weaker offensively with 0.95 goals scored, but slightly more stable defensively with 1.4 goals conceded. However, away from home, Athletic Club concedes an average of 1.89 goals. Interestingly, recent games at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán suggest low-scoring affairs, with an average of 2.2 goals and in none of the last five games did both teams score.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record clearly favors Athletic Club. In the last five meetings, Sevilla has not managed a single win, while Athletic Club has won four times and one match ended in a draw. The goal difference of 9:3 underscores the visitors' dominance in recent encounters. The last match ended in a 3-2 victory for Athletic Club.
Key Players
For Sevilla, Akor Adams stands out, having scored 5 goals this season and been directly involved in 5 goals in the last five games (3 goals, 2 assists). For Athletic Club, Nico Williams is a key offensive player with 4 season goals. Robert Navarro is also in rising form with one goal and three assists in his last five appearances. Oihan Sancet also contributes to the attacking threat.
Goalkeepers
In goal for Sevilla is Odysseas Vlachodimos, who has kept 4 clean sheets this season. His counterpart at Athletic Club is Unai Simón, who has managed 5 clean sheets in the current campaign. Both goalkeepers face a challenge given their teams' defensive vulnerabilities.
Influences
The home advantage for Sevilla appears limited, as their record on natural grass this season is weak with only 2 wins and 6 losses. The stadium's statistics show very low-scoring games recently, with both teams never scoring in the last five matches. Athletic Club's away record on natural grass is balanced with 4 wins and 4 losses, but they concede an average of 1.89 goals away from home.