La Liga
Villarreal - Real Madrid
01/24/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.8
2.2
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
25%
Draw
22%
Away Win
53%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
52%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
47%
Away or Draw
75%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Real Madrid's attack is in top form (averaging 3.4 goals recently), led by an outstanding Kylian Mbappé who has scored 7 goals in the last 5 games
- Real Madrid's defense is severely weakened by numerous injuries and suspensions (MilitĂŁo, RĂŒdiger, Carvajal, TchouamĂ©ni), creating opportunities for Villarreal's strong home attack
- The historical head-to-head record clearly favors Real Madrid, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters, giving them a psychological advantage
Risk Factors
- Villarreal's impressive home record (1.92 goals scored per game, only 0.58 conceded) could defy the current form predictions
- The high number of defensive absentees for Real Madrid could significantly destabilize their team structure, making them more vulnerable than expected
- Villarreal's own suspensions in midfield and defense could limit their ability to capitalize on Madrid's weaknesses
Overview
A top-tier La Liga clash is on the horizon: Villarreal, in 4th place with 41 points, hosts second-placed Real Madrid with 48 points at the Estadio de la CerĂĄmica. The match takes place on January 24, 2026, at 9:00 PM. For Villarreal, it's about staying in touch with the top, while Real Madrid aims to maintain pressure on the league leaders.
Form
Villarreal: LWWLL - 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses in the last 5 games. The team shows inconsistent form with two consecutive losses. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Real Madrid: WWLWW - 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games. The visitors are in strong form, with a two-game winning streak. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Real Madrid is slightly stronger with an average of 2.15 goals per game compared to Villarreal's 1.95. Defensively, the visitors are also slightly superior with 0.85 goals conceded per game (Villarreal: 1.00). Villarreal's home strength is particularly noteworthy: they have scored 23 goals in 12 home games while conceding only 7. Real Madrid is very efficient away, scoring an average of 2.22 goals. The Estadio de la CerĂĄmica sees an average of 3.2 goals per game.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Real Madrid has clearly dominated with 4 wins, while 1 match ended in a draw. Villarreal has not won any of these games. The goal difference is 15:7 in favor of Real Madrid. The last meeting ended in a 3-1 victory for Madrid.
Key Players
Alberto Moleiro is a key player for Villarreal with 8 season goals and 3 assists. Georges Mikautadze has scored 5 goals. For Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé is the standout performer with 19 season goals and 7 goals in his last 5 games. Vinicius Junior has contributed 5 goals and 5 assists, while Jude Bellingham shines with 4 goals and 3 assists.
Goalkeepers
Real Madrid's Thibaut Courtois has kept 9 clean sheets so far this season. His counterpart, Villarreal's Luiz JĂșnior, has 7 clean sheets.
Influences
Villarreal has a strong home record, averaging 1.92 goals scored to just 0.58 conceded per game. Real Madrid is very successful on natural grass with 7 wins in 10 matches. The stadium's statistics suggest a high-scoring game, with an average of 3.2 goals per match and a 60% rate for 'Both Teams To Score'.