La Liga
Atlético de Madrid - Mallorca
01/25/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.6
1.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
36%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
32%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
64%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Defensive advantage: Atlético's rock-solid home defense (0.54 goals conceded per game) meets Mallorca's extremely vulnerable away defense (2.12 goals conceded per game)
- Personnel contrast: Atlético's strong form is dampened by the absence of top scorer Antoine Griezmann, while Mallorca's hopes rest on the in-form Vedat Muriqi
- Historical dominance: Atlético has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches, which could give them a psychological edge
Risk Factors
- Muriqi Factor: Vedat Muriqi's exceptional form (5 goals in 4 games) could single-handedly carry Mallorca's attack and decide the match
- Griezmann's Absence: The absence of Antoine Griezmann could weaken Atlético Madrid's offense more than anticipated, as he has scored 6 season goals
- Complacency: Atlético's clear statistical and historical superiority could lead to underestimating their opponent
Overview
Atlético Madrid, in 3rd place with 41 points, hosts Mallorca, who are in 16th place with 21 points
The La Liga match will take place on January 25, 2026, at 2:00 PM at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid aims to maintain the gap with the top of the table, while Mallorca is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle
Form
Atlético Madrid: WDWWD - 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in the last 5 matches
The home team is in strong, unbeaten form
Mallorca: LDLLW - 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses in the last 5 matches
The visitors are showing weak form with only one victory
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Atlético Madrid shows a strong offense, averaging 1.75 goals per game, which increases to 1.77 at home
Mallorca scores an average of 1.2 goals per game, with 1.25 away
Defensively, Atlético is very solid, conceding only 0.54 goals per game at home
Mallorca's defense is vulnerable away, letting in an average of 2.12 goals
Atlético Madrid has kept 8 clean sheets, while Mallorca has only 3
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Atlético Madrid dominated with 4 wins, while Mallorca recorded no victories, and there was 1 draw
The goal difference is 6:1 in favor of Atlético Madrid
The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw
Key Players
Julián Alvarez is a key attacker for Atlético Madrid with 7 season goals
Alexander Sørloth has scored 6 goals this season and is on a rising trend with 2 goals in the last 5 games
Giuliano Simeone has contributed with 2 goals and 5 assists
For Mallorca, Vedat Muriqi is the standout player with 14 season goals and outstanding form, including 5 goals in the last 4 matches
Sergi Darder has provided 2 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Atlético Madrid's Jan Oblak has kept 8 clean sheets this season
Leo Román is in goal for Mallorca, whose team has kept a total of 3 clean sheets
Influences
Atlético Madrid has a clear home advantage, conceding an average of only 0.54 goals at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano
This stadium sees an average of 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches
Both teams are accustomed to the natural grass surface