La Liga
Valencia - Espanyol
01/24/2026, 03:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.7
1.2
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
37%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
31%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
63%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Valencia's defensive crisis: The absence of four key defenders (Diakhaby, TĂĄrrega, GayĂ , Copete) and the main goalkeeper poses a significant risk
- The draw streak: All of the last five direct encounters ended in a draw, suggesting extremely balanced matches
- Espanyol's offensive slump: The visitors have recently averaged only 0.8 goals per game, which is well below their season average of 1.2
Risk Factors
- The H2H anomaly: The historical trend of constant draws is statistically unusual and could be broken at any time
- Home advantage despite injuries: Valencia's strong home defensive record (only 0.69 goals conceded per game at home) could hold up despite the absences
- Data quality: A warning regarding the number of games played in the league table (listed as 0) could affect the accuracy of the overall assessment
Overview
Valencia, in 17th place in the table with 20 points, hosts Espanyol, who are in 5th place with 34 points
The La Liga match will take place on January 24, 2026, at 4:15 PM at the Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Espanyol aims to solidify its position in the European spots
Form
Valencia: DLDWW - 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
Espanyol: WWLDL - 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses
Both teams show mixed form, with Valencia recently showing an upward trend with two consecutive wins
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Offensively, Espanyol is slightly stronger with 1.15 goals per game compared to Valencia's 0.95
Defensively, Espanyol is also more stable with 1.1 goals conceded per game, while Valencia concedes 1.55
Valencia's home defense is very strong, conceding only 0.69 goals per game
Espanyol's away defense is also very solid, with only 0.89 goals conceded per game
Head-to-Head
The record of the last 5 direct duels is remarkably balanced, as all 5 matches ended in a draw
A total of 16 goals were scored in these 5 games, with an exact tie of 8:8 goals
The last encounter also ended in a draw (2:2)
Key Players
Hugo Duro is Valencia's top scorer with 6 season goals, while Pepelu has been in form recently with 2 goals in the last 4 games
For Espanyol, Pere Milla is the top scorer with 6 season goals
Edu ExpĂłsito stands out as the most important playmaker for the visitors with 5 season assists
Goalkeepers
With Valencia's main goalkeeper J. Agirrezabala injured, Stole Dimitrievski is expected to be in goal
Valencia has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Espanyol's goalkeeper Manuel Iori has helped his team to 7 clean sheets this season
Influences
The Estadio de Mestalla has recently been a venue for low-scoring games, with an average of 1.8 goals in the last 5 matches
However, both teams scored in 80% of these games
Both teams are accustomed to the natural grass surface and have solid records on it