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Liga MX

Querétaro - Juárez

04/08/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Querétaro
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Juárez
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
QUEJUÁ

Querétaro

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (0.7 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.12
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.05
Jhojan Julio on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 82% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Juárez

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Óscar Estupiñán on the bench (13 goals, 3 assists)
Alejandro Mayorga on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Querétaro with a 39% probability
  • Querétaro has historically dominated Juárez with 4 wins in 5 direct encounters
  • Juárez displays a strong away offense with 1.54 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Querétaro's goal production is stagnant with an average of 0.7 goals in recent form, below their season average of 1.1
  • Juárez concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
  • The mathematical model predicts a draw probability of 28%
Overview

Querétaro (12th place, 20 points) host Juárez (8th place, 23 points) in Liga MX on April 8, 2026, 00:00

Both teams are in the mid-table, with Juárez three points ahead of Querétaro

This encounter is important for both teams to stay in touch with the top half of the league

Form

Querétaro's form in all competitions is LLDDW

This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in the last five games

The last match ended in a 1-0 win against Toluca

Juárez shows form WLDWD in all competitions

This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last five matches

The most recent game was a 1-1 draw against Puebla

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Querétaro scores an average of 0.97 goals per game and concedes 1.55 goals per game over the season

At home, the average is 0.95 goals scored per game and 0.89 goals conceded per game

Juárez scores an average of 1.52 goals per game and concedes 1.67 goals per game over the season

Away, the average is 1.54 goals scored per game and 2.15 goals conceded per game

Querétaro recorded 8 clean sheets, while Juárez achieved 3 clean sheets

For Querétaro, over 2.5 goals were scored in 15 matches, for Juárez in 22 matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, Querétaro has secured 4 wins and Juárez 1 win

The goal difference stands at 9:3 in favor of Querétaro

The last meeting on November 8, 2025, ended in a 2:1 victory for then-home team Juárez

Key Players

For Querétaro, Alí Ávila (9 goals, 0 assists), Santiago Homenchenko (5 goals, 0 assists), and Mateo Coronel (3 goals, 0 assists) are important players

Jhojan Julio (3G/3A) is not in the squad

For Juárez, José Luis Rodríguez (4 goals, 8 assists), Jairo Torres (3 goals, 2 assists), and Rodolfo Pizarro (4 goals, 2 assists) are prominent

Óscar Estupiñán (13G/3A) and Alejandro Mayorga (0G/3A) are not in the lineup

Goalkeepers

Querétaro's goalkeeper José Hernández has achieved 8 clean sheets this season

Juárez's goalkeeper Sebastián Jurado has kept 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

Querétaro's home strength is evident with an average of 0.95 goals scored and 0.89 goals conceded per home game

Juárez, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away game and scores 1.54 goals per away game

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