La Liga
Athletic Club - Real Sociedad
02/01/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.3
1.7
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
32%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
80%
Over 3.5
52%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
75%
No
25%
Key Factors
- Significant form difference: Real Sociedad is unbeaten in five games (DWDWW), while Athletic Club has lost its last two matches (WLWLL)
- Offensive strength of both teams: Both teams are scoring more frequently than their season average according to recent stats and have in-form players like Gorka Guruzeta and Mikel Oyarzabal
- Defensive vulnerability: Both teams concede goals regularly, especially Real Sociedad away (1.62 per game), which suggests a match with goals on both sides
Risk Factors
- Unpredictability of the derby: The rivalry in the Basque derby can override current form and lead to an unexpected result
- Potential fatigue for the home team: Athletic Club has had only 4 days of rest since their last match, compared to 7 days for Real Sociedad, which could become a factor as the game progresses
Overview
Athletic Club (14th place, 24 points) hosts Real Sociedad (8th place, 27 points) at San Mamés Barria for a La Liga match on February 1, 2026, at 9:00 PM. This is a Basque derby between teams close in the standings, with the visitors holding a slight points advantage.
Form
Athletic Club form: WLWLL
The team has recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches, losing the last two consecutively
Real Sociedad form: DWDWW
The visitors are unbeaten in their last five games, with 3 wins and 2 draws, showing significantly better form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Real Sociedad is offensively stronger with an average of 1.38 goals per game compared to Athletic Club's 0.95 goals per game
Defensively, both teams are nearly identical with 1.43 (Athletic Club) and 1.38 (Real Sociedad) goals conceded per game
At home, Athletic Club averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.1 goals conceded
Real Sociedad is dangerous away from home with 1.38 goals per game, but also concedes 1.62 goals
In 17 of Real Sociedad's 21 league games, both teams have scored
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, the record is balanced with 2 wins each for Athletic Club and Real Sociedad, and 1 draw
The goal difference is 5:7 from Athletic Club's perspective
The last meeting was won by Real Sociedad with a score of 3-2
Key Players
Gorka Guruzeta of Athletic Club is in outstanding form, scoring 5 goals in his last 5 games, out of his 2 total for the season
Robert Navarro has 4 goals this season and is showing rising form with 2 goals in his last 5 matches
For Real Sociedad, Mikel Oyarzabal is the top scorer with 8 seasonal goals, having scored 3 times in his last 5 games
Gonçalo Guedes and Brais Méndez have each scored 5 goals this season
Goalkeepers
Unai SimĂłn of Athletic Club has kept 5 clean sheets in 21 appearances this season
Ălex Remiro of Real Sociedad has kept 1 clean sheet in 21 appearances
Influences
Recent matches at San Mamés Barria have been relatively high-scoring, with an average of 2.4 goals per game
Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 60% of the last 5 matches at the stadium
Athletic Club has only a slight home advantage, with a goal ratio of 1.0 scored to 1.1 conceded per home game
Real Sociedad has a better record on grass than Athletic Club