Liga MX
Tijuana - Tigres UANL
04/04/2026, 03:06 AM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.7
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Tijuana
Tigres UANL
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
28%
Away Win
46%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
54%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis shows Tigres UANL as favorites to win with 46% probability and 1.58 predicted goals
- Tigres UANL dominates head-to-head encounters with 4 wins in 5 matches and a goal difference of 14:3
- Tijuana has only 87% of their usual starting lineup's goal threat available, with Alan Vega and Unai Bilbao missing
Risk Factors
- Tijuana averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Tigres UANL's goal production is stagnant (1.8) compared to their season average (2.0), indicating a negative form trend
Overview
Tijuana (7th place, 24 points) host Tigres UANL (2nd place, 36 points) in Liga MX
The match takes place on April 4, 2026, 5:06 AM
Tigres UANL aims for a top position, while Tijuana tries to move into playoff spots
Form
Tijuana's form is DLLWL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) in their last 5 games
Tigres UANL's form is WLWDL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) in their last 5 games
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Tijuana recently lost 0-3 away against Necaxa
Tigres UANL lost their last away game 1-2 against Juárez
Statistics
Tijuana scored an average of 1.47 goals and conceded 1.34 goals per game this season
Tigres UANL scored an average of 1.77 goals and conceded 1.06 goals per game
Tijuana is defensively strong at home with an average of 0.6 goals conceded
Tigres UANL shows an offensive presence away with an average of 1.73 goals scored
Tijuana kept 11 clean sheets, while Tigres UANL recorded 13 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 16 Tijuana games, and 20 Tigres UANL games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Tijuana won 1 time and Tigres UANL won 4 times
There were no draws between the teams
Tijuana scored a total of 3 goals, while Tigres UANL scored 14 goals
The last encounter was won by Tigres UANL on November 30, 2025, with a 5-0 score
Key Players
For Tijuana, midfielder Kevin Castañeda is a key player with 11 season goals and 7 assists, recently scoring 2 goals and providing 1 assist
Midfielder Ramiro Árciga has 2 season goals and 7 assists, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Defender Alejandro Gómez contributed 2 season goals and recently scored 1 goal
For Tigres UANL, midfielder Juan Brunetta stands out with 14 season goals and 7 assists, recently scoring 3 goals and providing 2 assists
Attacker Ángel Correa has 13 season goals and 7 assists, with 1 goal in the last 5 games
Attacker Diego Lainez contributed 6 season goals and 7 assists, recently with 1 assist and a declining form
Goalkeepers
Antonio Rodríguez (Tijuana) has kept 11 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 7.17
Nahuel Guzmán (Tigres UANL) has 13 clean sheets and an average rating of 7.14
Nahuel Guzmán's form trend is rising with a delta of 0.52
Influences
Tijuana scores an average of 1.45 goals and concedes 0.6 goals per home game
Tigres UANL scores an average of 1.73 goals and concedes 1.6 goals per away game
Tijuana shows a solid defense at home