Liga MX
Guadalajara - Pumas UNAM
04/06/2026, 02:07 AM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.5
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
6%1:2
5%What influences the xG?
Guadalajara
Pumas UNAM
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
28%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis assigns a clear favorite role to the home team with 53% probability for a home win
- Current Form: Guadalajara is on a winning streak and shows a positive form trend
- Tactical Superiority: Guadalajara is possession-dominant and offensively strong with an average of 7.2 shots on target per game
Risk Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high draw probability of 28%
- Pumas UNAM's goal production has recently stalled with only an average of 1.4 goals, compared to their season average of 1.6 goals
Overview
Guadalajara hosts Pumas UNAM in a Liga MX match on April 6, 2026, 4:07 AM
Guadalajara is in 1st place in the league table with 30 points from 12 games
Pumas UNAM is in 5th place with 23 points from 12 games
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 53%
Form
Guadalajara shows strong form with LWWWW in their last five matches
The team has recorded 4 wins and 1 loss, winning their last 4 consecutive games
According to advanced analysis, Guadalajara has a positive form trend, currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than their season average (1.9)
Pumas UNAM's form in the last five matches is DLWDW
The team achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss during this period
Advanced analysis shows a negative form trend for Pumas UNAM, whose goal production has stalled (1.4) compared to their season average of 1.6
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Guadalajara scores an average of 1.81 goals per game this season and concedes 1.16 goals
At home, Guadalajara scores an average of 1.78 goals and concedes 0.83 goals per home game
The team kept 10 clean sheets, 7 of which were at home
Pumas UNAM scores an average of 1.53 goals per game this season and concedes 1.33 goals
Away from home, Pumas UNAM scores an average of 1.53 goals and concedes 1.60 goals per away game
The team kept 8 clean sheets, 3 of which were away
Guadalajara was involved in 'both teams scored' in 16 matches and 'over 2.5 goals' in 19 matches
Pumas UNAM was involved in 'both teams scored' in 20 matches and 'over 2.5 goals' in 14 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara recorded 3 wins, Pumas UNAM 1 win, and there was 1 draw
Guadalajara scored 6 goals, while Pumas UNAM scored 5 goals in these encounters
The last meeting on October 6, 2025, saw Guadalajara win 2-1 away
Guadalajara has been the more dominant side in recent matchups
Key Players
Armando GonzĂĄlez is a key attacker for Guadalajara with 22 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 5 goals in his last 5 games
Roberto Alvarado contributed 4 goals and 5 assists this season and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games
EfraĂn Ălvarez showed strong season performance with 3 goals and 6 assists, and assisted 1 goal in his last 5 games
Additionally, Ăngel SepĂșlveda (3 Goals/1 Assist) is not nominated for Guadalajara
Juninho is a crucial attacker for Pumas UNAM with 5 season goals and 2 assists, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 games
Robert Morales scored 4 season goals and 1 assist, with 2 goals in his last 5 games
Ălvaro Angulo, a defender, was involved in 6 goals and 2 assists this season, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 games
Adalberto Carrasquilla (2 Goals/5 Assists) is not nominated for Pumas UNAM
Goalkeepers
RaĂșl Rangel, Guadalajara's goalkeeper, recorded 10 clean sheets this season and shows a rising form trend
Keylor Navas, Pumas UNAM's goalkeeper, achieved 8 clean sheets this season and also shows a rising form trend
Influences
Guadalajara shows strong home performance, scoring an average of 1.78 goals and conceding only 0.83 goals per home game
Tactical analysis shows Guadalajara was possession-dominant (59% possession) in their last 5 games, averaging 7.2 shots on target
Pumas UNAM played with balanced possession (50% possession) in their last 5 games, averaging 4.0 shots on target