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Liga MX

Cruz Azul - Pachuca

04/05/2026, 01:05 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Cruz Azul
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Pachuca
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

14%

2:0

9%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CAPAC

Cruz Azul

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.53
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.02
Carlos Rotondi not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Agustín Palavecino not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Omar Campos on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
26% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Pachuca

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.05
Alexéi Domínguez on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

33%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis projects a Cruz Azul home win with 43% probability
  • Current Form: Cruz Azul is unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws)
  • Offensive Strength: Cruz Azul scores an average of 1.83 goals per home game, outperforming Pachuca's away offensive record
Overview

Cruz Azul (2nd place, 27 points) hosts Pachuca (5th place, 22 points) in a Liga MX clash on April 5, 2026, 2:05 AM. Cruz Azul is five points ahead of Pachuca and aims to solidify its position in the top region of the table.

Form

Cruz Azul shows strong form with WWWDD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches. They recently recorded two consecutive draws.

Pachuca's form curve is LWWDD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) in their last five matches, also with two consecutive draws. The W/D/L codes stand for W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Cruz Azul demonstrates a strong offense this season with an average of 1.82 goals per game, while Pachuca averages 1.29 goals. Defensively, Cruz Azul is also superior with 1.09 goals conceded per game compared to Pachuca's 1.10 goals conceded.

Cruz Azul's home strength is particularly notable with an average of 1.83 goals scored and only 0.89 goals conceded per home game. Pachuca scores an average of 1.29 goals away and concedes 1.36 goals per away game. Cruz Azul kept 10 clean sheets this season, Pachuca 7. For Cruz Azul, both teams scored in 22 matches, compared to 16 for Pachuca.

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, the picture is balanced. Cruz Azul won 3 matches and Pachuca won 2 matches. In total, Cruz Azul scored 7 goals and Pachuca scored 5 goals. The last meeting was won by Pachuca with a score of 1:0 on September 13, 2025.

Key Players

For Cruz Azul, José Paradela with 8 season goals and 7 assists, and Carlos Rodríguez with 7 goals and 5 assists are crucial. Jeremy Márquez contributed 4 goals and 1 assist. Cruz Azul will play without Carlos Rotondi (4G/4A), Agustín Palavecino (4G/3A), and Omar Campos (1G/1A).

For Pachuca, Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán with 1 goal and 7 assists, Salomón Rondón with 5 season goals, and Oussama Idrissi with 5 goals and 2 assists are important attacking forces. Pachuca will play without Alexéi Domínguez (2G/2A).

Goalkeepers

Andrés Gudiño is the goalkeeper for Cruz Azul with an average season rating of 6.7 and 10 clean sheets for the team. On the opposing side, Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna is in goal for Pachuca, whose team achieved 7 clean sheets this season and has an average season rating of 6.93.

Influences

Cruz Azul shows strong performance at home with an average of 1.83 goals scored and only 0.89 goals conceded per home game. Pachuca scores an average of 1.29 goals away and concedes 1.36 goals per away game.

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