Liga MX
Cruz Azul - Pachuca
04/05/2026, 01:05 AM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.1
0.8
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
14%2:0
9%0:1
9%What influences the xG?
Cruz Azul
Pachuca
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
33%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis projects a Cruz Azul home win with 43% probability
- Current Form: Cruz Azul is unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws)
- Offensive Strength: Cruz Azul scores an average of 1.83 goals per home game, outperforming Pachuca's away offensive record
Overview
Cruz Azul (2nd place, 27 points) hosts Pachuca (5th place, 22 points) in a Liga MX clash on April 5, 2026, 2:05 AM. Cruz Azul is five points ahead of Pachuca and aims to solidify its position in the top region of the table.
Form
Cruz Azul shows strong form with WWWDD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches. They recently recorded two consecutive draws.
Pachuca's form curve is LWWDD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) in their last five matches, also with two consecutive draws. The W/D/L codes stand for W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Cruz Azul demonstrates a strong offense this season with an average of 1.82 goals per game, while Pachuca averages 1.29 goals. Defensively, Cruz Azul is also superior with 1.09 goals conceded per game compared to Pachuca's 1.10 goals conceded.
Cruz Azul's home strength is particularly notable with an average of 1.83 goals scored and only 0.89 goals conceded per home game. Pachuca scores an average of 1.29 goals away and concedes 1.36 goals per away game. Cruz Azul kept 10 clean sheets this season, Pachuca 7. For Cruz Azul, both teams scored in 22 matches, compared to 16 for Pachuca.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, the picture is balanced. Cruz Azul won 3 matches and Pachuca won 2 matches. In total, Cruz Azul scored 7 goals and Pachuca scored 5 goals. The last meeting was won by Pachuca with a score of 1:0 on September 13, 2025.
Key Players
For Cruz Azul, José Paradela with 8 season goals and 7 assists, and Carlos Rodríguez with 7 goals and 5 assists are crucial. Jeremy Márquez contributed 4 goals and 1 assist. Cruz Azul will play without Carlos Rotondi (4G/4A), Agustín Palavecino (4G/3A), and Omar Campos (1G/1A).
For Pachuca, Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán with 1 goal and 7 assists, Salomón Rondón with 5 season goals, and Oussama Idrissi with 5 goals and 2 assists are important attacking forces. Pachuca will play without Alexéi Domínguez (2G/2A).
Goalkeepers
Andrés Gudiño is the goalkeeper for Cruz Azul with an average season rating of 6.7 and 10 clean sheets for the team. On the opposing side, Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna is in goal for Pachuca, whose team achieved 7 clean sheets this season and has an average season rating of 6.93.
Influences
Cruz Azul shows strong performance at home with an average of 1.83 goals scored and only 0.89 goals conceded per home game. Pachuca scores an average of 1.29 goals away and concedes 1.36 goals per away game.