Liga MX
Monterrey - Atlético San Luis
04/04/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.6
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Monterrey
Atlético San Luis
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
27%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 54% probability and 1.69 expected goals for Monterrey
- Monterrey has a more effective offense at home with an average of 1.76 goals and a solid defense with 1.0 goals conceded
- In head-to-head matches, Monterrey has won 3 out of 5 encounters with a superior goal difference of 10:5 goals
Risk Factors
- Both teams are showing poor current form with LWLDL in their last five matches
- Monterrey's average of 1.48 goals conceded and San Luis' 1.72 goals conceded per game indicate defensive vulnerabilities
- The pipeline prediction suggests a 51% probability for both teams to score
Overview
Monterrey (5th place, 31 points) host Atlético San Luis (15th place, 11 points) in Liga MX
Match on April 5, 2026, 12:00 AM
The home team aims to improve its league position, while the visitors are in the lower part of the table
Form
Monterrey's current form across all competitions is LWLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This accounts for 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Monterrey's last five matches: A 2-3 loss against Guadalajara, a 2-2 draw against Juárez, a 0-1 loss against Tigres UANL, a 4-0 win against Querétaro, and a 0-2 loss against Cruz Azul
Atlético San Luis also shows a form of LWLDL
This accounts for 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Atlético San Luis's last five matches: A 1-2 loss against León, a 1-1 draw against Pachuca, a 0-3 loss against Cruz Azul, a 4-1 win against Mazatlán, and a 0-1 loss against Puebla
Statistics
Monterrey scores an average of 1.73 goals per game and concedes 1.48 goals
At home, the average is 1.76 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded
Atlético San Luis scores an average of 1.48 goals per game and concedes 1.72 goals
Away, the team scores an average of 1.47 goals and concedes 1.73 goals
Monterrey had both teams score in 17 games and over 2.5 goals in 18 games
Atlético San Luis had both teams score in 19 games and over 2.5 goals in 18 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Monterrey led with 3 wins compared to 2 wins for Atlético San Luis
Monterrey scored 10 goals, while Atlético San Luis scored 5 goals
The last encounter on July 19, 2025, ended in a 1-0 victory for Atlético San Luis at their home stadium
The historical record suggests a dominance of the home team
Key Players
For Monterrey, the following players are notable
Sergio Canales (Midfielder) with 13 goals and 6 assists in 28 season appearances, average rating of 7.59
Óliver Torres (Midfielder) with 1 goal and 7 assists in 29 season appearances, average rating of 7.13
Jesús Corona (Attacker) with 4 goals and 4 assists in 26 season appearances, recently in rising form with a form trend improvement of 0.45
For Atlético San Luis, the following players are notable
João Pedro (Attacker) with 22 goals in 29 season appearances, recently in rising form with 3 goals in 5 games
Sébastien Salles-Lamonge (Midfielder) with 5 goals and 4 assists in 29 season appearances
Jesús Medina (Attacker) with 1 goal and 2 assists in 7 season appearances
Not nominated for Monterrey are Luca Orellano (3G/4A) and Iker Fimbres (2G/0A)
Goalkeepers
Luis Cárdenas, Monterrey's goalkeeper, has recorded 6 clean sheets in home games this season
Andrés Sánchez, Atlético San Luis's goalkeeper, has recorded 4 clean sheets in away games this season
Influences
Monterrey shows a stronger offense at home with an average of 1.76 goals scored and a more stable defense with 1.0 goals conceded
No data available for stadium or weather related influences