Liga MX
Necaxa - Mazatlán
04/04/2026, 03:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%0:2
5%What influences the xG?
Necaxa
Mazatlán
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
30%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Mathematical analysis favors Necaxa with a 40% chance for a home win, with a home win or draw double chance at 70%.
- Defensive vulnerability: Mazatlán's away defense is extremely weak, conceding an average of 2.67 goals per away game.
- Tactical approach: Mazatlán has recently been counter-oriented with an average of 35% possession and 4.8 shots on target per game.
Risk Factors
- Limited goal threat for Necaxa: Kevin Rosero (2G/3A) and Franco Rossano (0G/4A) are not in the lineup, reducing the usual starting eleven goal threat by 3%.
- Opponent's rising form: Mazatlán is currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals), indicating a positive form trend.
- Inconsistent home form: Necaxa has suffered 3 losses in their last 5 home matches, suggesting a lack of consistency.
Overview
Necaxa (11th place, 13 points) hosts Mazatlán (16th place, 11 points) in a Liga MX match on April 4, 2026, 3:00 AM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table, fighting for crucial points. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Necaxa with 40% probability.
Form
Necaxa's form in the last five matches is LLLDW, which includes 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their last result was a win. Mazatlán shows a form of WLWLD, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last result was a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Necaxa scores an average of 1.31 goals per game and concedes 1.66 goals per game. At home, they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded. The team kept 3 clean sheets in home games. Mazatlán averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.79 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they average 1.11 goals scored and concede 2.67 goals. Both teams scored in 17 (Necaxa) and 21 (Mazatlán) matches. Necaxa had 16 and Mazatlán 17 matches with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa secured 2 wins, Mazatlán 1 win, and 2 games ended in a draw. Necaxa scored 9 goals and conceded 4. The last encounter, on November 8, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw.
Key Players
For Necaxa, Tomás Badaloni (Attacker) is a key player with 6 season goals and 2 assists in 29 appearances, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 games. Javier Ruiz (Midfielder) scored 4 goals in 7 season appearances, with 3 of those in his last 5 games, showing stable form. Agustín Oliveros (Defender) has 1 season goal and 1 goal in his last 5 games, indicating rising form. For Mazatlán, Facundo Almada (Defender) is a strong performer with 6 season goals and 1 assist in 29 appearances, showing rising form. Josué Ovalle (Attacker) scored 4 goals in 7 appearances, with 3 goals in his last 5 games. Brian Rubio (Attacker) has 2 season goals in 10 appearances, also scoring 2 goals in his last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Necaxa's goalkeeper Ezequiel Unsain has achieved 3 clean sheets in 29 season appearances. Mazatlán's goalkeeper Ricardo Rodríguez has 2 clean sheets in 12 season appearances.
Influences
Necaxa scores an average of 1.29 goals at home and concedes 1.07 goals per home game. Mazatlán concedes an average of 2.67 goals per away game. Necaxa's defensive home strength could play a role here.