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Liga MX

León - Atlas

04/05/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
León
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Atlas
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
LEÓATL

León

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.07
Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average)
+0.07
Ismael Díaz on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 74% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1 goals/match)

Atlas

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.67
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.30
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap)
+0.04
Gustavo Henrique Ferrareis on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

32%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for León with a 38% probability, with a draw at 32%
  • Atlas shows a vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 2.9 goals per game on the road
  • León's goal production, according to Advanced Stats, has recently been higher at 1.2 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.0 goals
Risk Factors
  • Atlas only averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • León concedes a high average of 1.9 goals per game throughout the season
Overview

León (14th place, 13 points) hosts Atlas (6th place, 18 points) in Liga MX

The match takes place on April 5, 2026, 2:00 AM

León is in the lower third of the table, while Atlas is competing for the top spots

Form

León's form in the last 5 games is WLLLW

The team achieved 2 wins and 3 losses

Atlas' form in the last 5 games is LWLDD

They recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

León ended the last game with a win

Atlas most recently drew twice in a row

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

León scored an average of 0.93 goals and conceded 1.9 goals per game this season

Atlas scored an average of 1.31 times and conceded 1.76 goals per game

León kept 4 clean sheets, Atlas kept 6 clean sheets

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 16 of León's games, and also in 16 of Atlas' games

León scored an average of 0.95 goals at home and conceded 1.1 goals

Atlas scored 1.3 goals per away game but conceded a high 2.9 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, León has 2 wins, Atlas has 1 win, and there were 2 draws

León scored a total of 4 goals, Atlas also scored 4 goals

The last encounter was won by Atlas with 0:2 on October 23, 2025

Key Players

León's attacker Díber Cambindo recorded 5 goals and 1 assist in 12 season appearances, most recently 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games

Fernando Beltrán (Midfielder) contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in 26 games, with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Ismael Díaz, who contributed 7 goals and 3 assists this season, is not in the lineup

Atlas' attacker Arturo González scored 5 season goals in 24 games, including 3 goals in the last 5 games

Diego González (Attacker) has 6 goals and 6 assists in 27 season appearances

Paulo Ramírez (Midfielder) scored 2 goals in 21 games, including 1 goal in his last 5 appearances

Gustavo Henrique Ferrareis, who provided 3 assists this season, is not in the lineup

Goalkeepers

León's goalkeeper Óscar García kept 4 clean sheets this season

Atlas' goalkeeper Camilo Vargas recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

León's home games show an offense of 0.95 goals and a defense of 1.1 goals conceded

Atlas concedes an average of 2.9 goals per away game

The dataset does not contain information on venue history, surface, or weather conditions

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