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Liga MX

Juárez - Tijuana

04/11/2026, 03:06 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Juárez
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Tijuana
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
JUÁTIJ

Juárez

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.03

Tijuana

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.12
Alan Vega not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists)
Unai Bilbao on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

29%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Mathematical analysis forecasts a 48% probability for a home win
  • Tijuana's away weakness: Tijuana concedes an average of 2.58 goals per away game
  • Juárez's offensive drive: Juárez recorded an average of 4.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue for Juárez: Juárez had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Tijuana's limited offense: Tijuana recorded an average of 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Historical record: Tijuana has been more dominant in recent head-to-head encounters
Overview

Juárez (8th place, 23 points) hosts Tijuana (7th place, 24 points) in Liga MX

The match is scheduled for April 11, 2026, 4:06 AM

This encounter promises to be a balanced clash in the mid-table

Form

Juárez's form across all competitions is LDWDD

This means 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games

Their last result was a 1:1 draw against Querétaro

Juárez has drawn twice in a row

Tijuana's form is LLWLW

This indicates 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games

Tijuana won their last match 1:0 against Tigres UANL

Statistics

Juárez scores an average of 1.5 goals per game this season and concedes 1.65 goals

Tijuana scores an average of 1.45 goals per game and concedes 1.3 goals

Juárez had 27 games where both teams scored, Tijuana had 16 such games

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 22 Juárez matches and 17 Tijuana matches

At home, Juárez scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.35 goals

Away, Tijuana scores an average of 1.5 goals but concedes a high 2.58 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between Juárez and Tijuana

Tijuana won 2 of these encounters, while Juárez won 1

2 matches ended in a draw

The goal difference is 7:5 in favor of Tijuana

The last meeting saw Tijuana win 3:1 on November 21, 2025

Tijuana has been more dominant in recent direct clashes

Key Players

For Juárez, these players could be crucial

Óscar Estupiñán (Attacker): 14 season goals, 3 assists; 2 goals in last 5 games, form is declining

José Luis Rodríguez (Attacker): 4 season goals, 8 assists, form is stable

Monchu (Midfielder): 1 season goal; 1 goal in last 5 games, form is stable

For Tijuana, these players stand out

Kevin Castañeda (Midfielder): 12 season goals, 7 assists; 3 goals in last 5 games, form is stable

Ramiro Árciga (Midfielder): 2 season goals, 7 assists; 1 assist in last 5 games, form is stable

Alejandro Gómez (Defender): 2 season goals; 1 goal in last 5 games, form is rising

Goalkeepers

The goalkeeper for Juárez is Sebastián Jurado

Juárez's team has achieved 3 clean sheets this season

Antonio Rodríguez is Tijuana's goalkeeper

Antonio Rodríguez has an average season rating of 7.17

Tijuana's team has achieved 12 clean sheets this season

Influences

Juárez shows an average home offense of 1.5 goals per game

Their defense concedes an average of 1.35 home goals

Tijuana scores an average of 1.5 goals away from home

Tijuana's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.58 goals per game

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