Liga MX
Pumas UNAM - Mazatlán
04/12/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.7
1.0
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
10%3:1
6%1:2
6%What influences the xG?
Pumas UNAM
Mazatlán
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
27%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 53% for Pumas UNAM
- Pumas UNAM has a dominant head-to-head record against Mazatlán with 4 wins in 5 matches and a 10:1 goal difference
- Mazatlán's defensive vulnerability away from home, with an average of 2.89 goals conceded per game, is a decisive factor
Risk Factors
- Mazatlán concedes an average of 2.89 goals per away game
- Mazatlán is currently scoring more frequently (1.4 goals) than their season average (1.2 goals)
Overview
Pumas UNAM (5th place, 24 points) host Mazatlán (16th place, 14 points) in Liga MX on April 12, 2026, 7:00 PM
The hosts are in the playoff ranks, while Mazatlán are battling at the bottom of the table
Pumas aim to consolidate their position in the upper half of the standings
Form
Pumas UNAM shows a form of LWDWD across all competitions
This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in the last five games
Their last match ended in a draw
Mazatlán has a form of LWLDL, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Mazatlán's last game was a loss
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Pumas UNAM scores an average of 1.53 goals at home and concedes 1.07 goals per home game
Mazatlán is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.89 goals per away game, but scoring 1.22 goals
Pumas UNAM kept 8 clean sheets this season, Mazatlán only 2
In 15 of 31 Pumas UNAM games, more than 2.5 goals were scored; for Mazatlán, it was 18 of 30 games
Both teams scored in 21 of 31 Pumas UNAM games, and in 22 of 30 Mazatlán games
Head-to-Head
Pumas UNAM and Mazatlán have met in 5 head-to-head matches
Pumas have won 4 of these encounters, while Mazatlán has won none
There has been 1 draw between the teams
The goal difference of 10:1 clearly favors Pumas UNAM
The last meeting on September 13, 2025, ended with a 4:1 victory for Pumas UNAM
Pumas UNAM dominates recent head-to-head matches
Key Players
For Pumas UNAM, Robert Morales is a key attacking force with 2 goals in the last 5 games and a total of 4 goals and 1 assist this season, alongside Álvaro Angulo with 6 goals and 2 assists, and Juninho with 5 goals and 3 assists
For Mazatlán, Josué Ovalle stands out with 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and a total of 4 goals and 1 assist this season
Brian Rubio recently scored 2 goals, and Yoel Bárcenas scored once in the last 4 matches
Goalkeepers
Keylor Navas of Pumas UNAM had 8 clean sheets in 29 appearances
His form shows a rising trend with an average rating of 7.49 in the last 5 games
Ricardo Rodríguez of Mazatlán played 13 times and kept 2 clean sheets
His rating in the last 5 games is a stable 7.32
Influences
Pumas UNAM shows stronger performance at home, with an average of 1.53 goals scored and only 1.07 goals conceded
Mazatlán has significant defensive difficulties away from home, conceding an average of 2.89 goals per game