đŸ‡ČđŸ‡œ

Liga MX

Atlas - Monterrey

04/12/2026, 01:00 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Atlas
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Monterrey
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ATLMON

Atlas

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.61
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
Sergio Hernandez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Monterrey

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.03
Gerardo Arteaga on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Iker Fimbres not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

32%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Monterrey's historical dominance in head-to-head matches favors the visitors
  • Monterrey's offensive strength (averaging 1.71 goals per game) meets Atlas' recently stagnant goal production (1.0 goals in the last 5 games)
  • The mathematical analysis sees Atlas as a slight favorite to win with a 37% probability
Risk Factors
  • Monterrey concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Atlas' goal production has recently stalled at 1.0 goals, compared to a season average of 1.4
  • Monterrey has suffered three losses in their last five league matches
Overview

Atlas (9th place, 18 points) hosts Monterrey (5th place, 31 points) in Liga MX on April 12, 2026, 3:00 AM

Form

Atlas' form across all competitions: WLDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Their last match ended in a 0-2 loss away against LeĂłn

Monterrey's form across all competitions: WLDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Their last match ended in a 1-2 loss at home against Atlético San Luis

Statistics

Atlas averages 1.27 goals scored per game and concedes 1.77 goals

At home, they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.1 goals conceded

Monterrey averages 1.71 goals scored per game and concedes 1.5 goals

Away from home, they average 1.69 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded

Atlas has seen both teams score in 17 matches and over 2.5 goals in 16 matches

Monterrey has seen both teams score in 18 matches and over 2.5 goals in 19 matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Atlas has 0 wins, Monterrey has 4 wins, and there was 1 draw

The goal difference of 5:13 goals clearly favors Monterrey

The last encounter on July 27, 2025, saw Monterrey win 3-1

Monterrey has dominated recent encounters

Key Players

For Atlas, Arturo GonzĂĄlez shows rising form with 5 season goals and 2 goals in the last 5 games

Diego GonzĂĄlez contributed 6 season goals and 6 assists

Manuel Capasso achieved an average season rating of 7.09 and 7.27 in the last 5 games

For Monterrey, Luca Orellano shines with 3 goals and 4 assists this season, including 2 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games

JesĂșs Corona shows rising form with 4 season goals and 4 assists, plus 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Óliver Torres is a key playmaker with 8 assists this season and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Atlas' goalkeeper Camilo Vargas made 27 season appearances and kept 6 clean sheets

Monterrey's goalkeeper Luis CĂĄrdenas made 19 season appearances and achieved 9 clean sheets

Influences

Atlas scored 25 goals in home games and conceded 22 goals

Monterrey scored 27 goals in away games and conceded 32 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.