🇲🇽

Liga MX

Pachuca - Santos Laguna

04/12/2026, 01:00 AM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Pachuca
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Santos Laguna
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

2:0

10%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
PACSL

Pachuca

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.50
Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.06
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Alexéi Domínguez on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Christian Rivera not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Santos Laguna

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.75
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Aldo López not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Haret Ortega on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

29%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Pachuca is in good form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games
  • Santos Laguna concedes an average of 3.17 goals per away game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 50% for Pachuca
Risk Factors
  • Santos Laguna concedes an average of 3.17 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
  • Pachuca's forward Salomón Rondón shows a slightly declining form trend
  • Santos Laguna is missing C. Gruezo Arboleda (Thigh Muscle Strain) and K. Picón Álvarez (Red Card Suspension)
Overview

Pachuca (4th place, 25 points) host Santos Laguna (11th place, 20 points) in Liga MX on April 12, 2026, 3:00 AM. The home team aims to solidify their table position and maintain the gap to the top spots. Santos Laguna, on the other hand, is trying to move away from the relegation zone and collect more crucial points.

Form

Pachuca shows good form with 'WWDDW' in their last five games across all competitions, which corresponds to 3 wins and 2 draws. Pachuca won their last match away against Cruz Azul with a 2-1 score. Santos Laguna, however, has inconsistent form with 'LWLWD' from their last five fixtures, meaning 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last game ended in a 1-1 draw at home against América. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Pachuca averages 1.31 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.29 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded. Overall, Pachuca kept 7 clean sheets, 4 of them at home. Both teams scored in 17 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 16 matches. Santos Laguna averages 1.23 goals scored and an alarming 1.97 goals conceded per game. Away, they score 1.25 goals and concede 3.17 goals per game. Santos Laguna kept 5 clean sheets this season, but none away from home. Both teams scored in 19 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 22 matches. Pachuca is currently scoring more frequently (1.6 goals) than their season average (1.4 goals), indicating a positive trend. Santos Laguna is scoring consistently (around 1.2 goals per game), showing stable form.

Head-to-Head

In the 5 head-to-head matches played so far, Pachuca secured 3 wins, there was 1 draw, and Santos Laguna won once. The goal difference is 8:5 in favor of Pachuca. The last encounter on November 9, 2025, ended with a 0-1 away win for Santos Laguna.

Key Players

For Pachuca, Kenedy and Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán show stable to rising form. Kenedy scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.11. Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 matches, improving his rating to 7.20. Salomón Rondón showed strong attacking presence with 3 goals in his last 5 games, however, his form is slightly declining. For Santos Laguna, Ezequiel Bullaude stands out with 3 goals in the last 5 games and a rising form with an average rating of 7.28. Lucas Di Yorio showed stable form with 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 games, while Javier Güemez provided an assist and improved his rating to 7.06.

Goalkeepers

Pachuca's goalkeeper, Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna, made 31 appearances this season and showed stable form with a rating of 6.98 in his last 5 games. He kept 7 clean sheets. For Santos Laguna, Carlos Acevedo was in goal 30 times and also showed stable form with a rating of 6.96 in his last 4 games. He kept 5 clean sheets, none of which were away from home.

Influences

Pachuca has a good record in home games, averaging 1.29 goals scored and only 0.88 goals conceded. Santos Laguna, on the other hand, has a very weak away record, averaging 1.25 goals scored and 3.17 goals conceded. There is no venue history or weather data available that could influence the match.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.