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Liga MX

Tigres UANL - Guadalajara

04/11/2026, 11:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Tigres UANL
1.1
Total xG
2.2
Guadalajara
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

11%

0:1

10%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
TUGUA

Tigres UANL

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.77
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.48
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.40
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.36
Diego Lainez not in squad (6 goals, 7 assists)
RĂŽmulo Zanre Zwarg on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Vladimir Loroña not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Guadalajara

5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.32
Rising form (3 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.32
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
-0.28
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.05
Richard Ledezma not in squad (1 goals, 8 assists)
Ángel SepĂșlveda not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

32%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Guadalajara shows strong current form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches
  • Tigres UANL is in a negative form phase with 3 losses in their last 5 games
  • Guadalajara averaged 8.8 shots on target in their last 5 games, while Tigres UANL only managed 3.6
Risk Factors
  • The provided dataset does not list any specific risk factors based on fatigue, match progression, away or home weakness
Overview

Tigres UANL (2nd place, 36 points) host Guadalajara (1st place, 31 points) in Liga MX

Match on April 11, 2026, 11:00 PM

This is a top fixture between two teams from the upper half of the table, with Tigres UANL looking to leverage their home advantage

Form

Tigres UANL's form is W/D/L: LWDLL

The team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches

The last two games ended in a defeat

Guadalajara shows strong form with W/D/L: WWWWD

They achieved 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five fixtures

The last match was a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Tigres UANL averages 1.71 goals scored per home game and concedes 0.62 goals

They kept 10 clean sheets at home

Guadalajara is strong offensively away from home with an average of 1.85 goals per game, but concedes 1.62 goals

They recorded 3 clean sheets away

Overall this season, Tigres UANL averages 1.72 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded per game

Guadalajara has a season average of 1.81 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded per game

For Tigres UANL, both teams scored in 20 matches and over 2.5 goals occurred in 18 matches

For Guadalajara, both teams scored in 17 matches and over 2.5 goals occurred in 20 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres UANL secured 2 wins and there were 3 draws

Guadalajara has not managed a victory so far

Tigres UANL scored 7 goals and conceded 2 goals

The last encounter on September 18, 2025, ended goalless at 0:0

Key Players

For Tigres UANL, Juan Brunetta (season: 14 goals, 7 assists) and Ángel Correa (season: 13 goals, 7 assists) are in the starting lineup

Ozziel Herrera (season: 6 goals, 3 assists) is also included

All three players show a declining form trend

For Guadalajara, Armando GonzĂĄlez starts, contributing 24 goals and 1 assist this season with a rising form trend

Efraín Álvarez (season: 3 goals, 6 assists) and Roberto Alvarado (season: 4 goals, 5 assists) are also key attacking players

Goalkeepers

Nahuel GuzmĂĄn is the goalkeeper for Tigres UANL, recording 13 clean sheets this season

RaĂșl Rangel is Guadalajara's goalkeeper, keeping 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

Tigres UANL is defensively stable at home, conceding an average of 0.62 goals

Guadalajara demonstrates a strong away offense with an average of 1.85 goals scored per game

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