Liga MX
Toluca - Atlético San Luis
04/13/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
2.4
3.2
0.8
2:0
12%2:1
9%3:0
9%1:1
9%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Toluca
Atlético San Luis
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
72%
Draw
19%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
39%
Under 3.5
61%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
28%
No Draw
81%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Significant weakening of Toluca's offense: Only 40% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available, with Paulinho (21G/4A), Helinho (9G/6A), Jesús Angulo (7G/4A), Franco Romero (1G/2A), and Federico Pereira (3G/0A) missing
- Pipeline prediction: Mathematical analysis indicates a very high probability of a home win at 72%
- Historical dominance: Toluca won all 5 direct encounters against Atlético San Luis, achieving a goal difference of 14:4
Risk Factors
- Toluca's goal production has slowed recently, with an average of 1.6 goals per game compared to their season average of 2.2 goals
- Toluca is missing midfielder M. Ruiz Suárez due to a Cruciate Ligament Tear, who contributed 3 goals and 4 assists this season
- Atlético San Luis shows consistent goal-scoring ability in recent matches, averaging 1.6 goals per game
Overview
Toluca (1st place, 37 points) hosts Atlético San Luis (15th place, 14 points) in Liga MX on April 13, 2026, 2:00 AM
The hosts lead the table and aim to extend their top position
Atlético San Luis is fighting in the lower mid-table for points to move away from the relegation zone
Form
Toluca's form in the last five games is WWDDL
This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The last appearance ended in a loss (0-1 against Querétaro)
Atlético San Luis's form in the last five games is WLDLW
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Atlético San Luis won their last game 2-1 against Monterrey
Statistics
Toluca scores an average of 1.95 goals and concedes 0.86 goals per game in home matches
The team kept 5 clean sheets in home games
Atlético San Luis scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.69 goals per game in away matches
The team kept 4 clean sheets in away games
Toluca has had 19 games with both teams scoring and 18 games with over 2.5 goals this season
Atlético San Luis recorded 20 games with both teams scoring and 19 games with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In a total of 5 head-to-head matches between Toluca and Atlético San Luis, there has been clear home dominance
Toluca won all 5 encounters, while Atlético San Luis remained without a win
The goal difference in these matches is 14:4 in favor of Toluca
The last meeting on August 30, 2025, ended with a 3-1 home victory for Toluca
Key Players
For Toluca, Alexis Vega is an important attacker with 4 goals and 10 assists this season
Defender Antonio Briseño showed a rising form trend in the last 5 games with 1 goal
Midfielder Sebastián Córdova contributed 2 assists this season
For Atlético San Luis, attacker João Pedro stands out with an impressive 23 season goals and shows a rising form trend
Midfielder Sébastien Salles-Lamonge scored 5 goals and provided 6 assists
Attacker Jesús Medina contributed 1 goal and 2 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Toluca's goalkeeper, Hugo González, played 21 season games with an average rating of 6.87
Toluca recorded a total of 13 clean sheets this season
Andrés Sánchez, Atlético San Luis's goalkeeper, played 28 season games and achieved an average rating of 6.77
Atlético San Luis kept a total of 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
Toluca shows strong performance at home with an average of 1.95 goals scored and only 0.86 goals conceded
Atlético San Luis has a more vulnerable defense away from home, conceding an average of 1.69 goals per game