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Liga MX

Puebla - León

04/11/2026, 01:00 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Puebla
1.3
Total xG
2.4
León
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
PUELEÓ

Puebla

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.44
Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Emiliano Gómez not in squad (7 goals, 5 assists)
Edgar Guerra not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Fernando Monárrez not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Kevin Velasco not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Luis Gabriel Rey on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
93% of goal output missing (only 3% available)

León

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-0.27
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.06
Ismael Díaz not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists)
Díber Cambindo not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Iván Moreno not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Fernando Beltrán not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Juan Domínguez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Salvador Reyes not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Critical absences for Puebla: Only 4% of usual starting eleven goal threat available, without Emiliano Gómez (7G/5A), Edgar Guerra (4G/2A), Fernando Monárrez (1G/3A), Kevin Velasco (0G/3A), Luis Gabriel Rey (2G/0A)
  • Critical absences for León: Only 0% of usual starting eleven goal threat available, without Ismael Díaz (7G/4A), Díber Cambindo (6G/1A), Iván Moreno (1G/4A), Fernando Beltrán (2G/2A), Juan Domínguez (1G/1A), Salvador Reyes (0G/2A)
  • Mathematical prediction: The pipeline predicts a home win for Puebla with 42% probability, supported by León's high away goals conceded (Avg. 4.12)
Risk Factors
  • León concedes an average of 4.12 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
Overview

Puebla (15th place, 13 points) host León (11th place, 16 points) in Liga MX. The match takes place on April 11, 2026, 2:00 AM. Puebla is fighting in the lower third of the table, while León is trying to climb

Form

Puebla's form across all competitions is WLDLD, representing 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last result was a draw

León's form is LLLWW, with 2 wins and 3 losses. They have won their last two matches

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Puebla scores an average of 1.07 goals per game and concedes 1.93 goals per game this season. At home, they score 1.06 and concede 1.61 goals per home game

León scores an average of 0.97 goals per game and concedes 1.83 goals per game. Away from home, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 4.12 goals conceded per away game

Puebla saw both teams score in 16 matches, while León had both teams score in 15 matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 18 of Puebla's games and 16 of León's games

Head-to-Head

In the 5 direct head-to-head encounters, the record is even. Both teams have secured 2 wins each, with 1 draw

The goal difference stands at 10:10 for both sides

Puebla won the last meeting away from home with a 2-1 score on November 9, 2025

Key Players

For Puebla, Juan Pablo Vargas (Defender) is an important player with 1 goal and an average rating of 6.94, though his form has recently declined

For León, Valentín Gauthier (Defender) is notable with an average rating of 6.58 and recently rising form

Goalkeepers

Puebla's goalkeeper, Daniel Gutiérrez, has achieved 6 clean sheets this season

León's goalkeeper Óscar García recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Puebla averages 1.06 goals scored at home and concedes 1.61 goals. León averages 1.0 goals scored away and concedes 4.12 goals per away game

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