Liga MX
Necaxa - Tigres UANL
04/18/2026, 11:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.7
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
League
The Lab
- 1Tigres UANL: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2Tigres UANL with Rômulo Zanre Zwarg: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Necaxa: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Necaxa: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Tigres UANL: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
27%
Draw
28%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
73%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Tigres UANL is favored with a 45% win probability
- League Position: Tigres UANL sits in 2nd place with 36 points, well ahead of Necaxa in 12th
- Head-to-Head: Tigres UANL dominated the last 5 encounters with 3 wins and 2 draws
Risk Factors
- Tigres UANL's goal production has recently stalled, averaging 1.5 goals compared to a season average of 2.0 goals
- Necaxa concedes an average of 1.68 goals per game over the season
Overview
Necaxa (12th place, 16 points) hosts Tigres UANL (2nd place, 36 points) in Liga MX on April 18, 2026, 11:00 PM. The visitors, as a top team, are clear favorites. Necaxa is fighting against relegation, while Tigres UANL aims to solidify a top position.
Form
Necaxa's form (LDWWL) across all competitions shows 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last match was a loss. Tigres UANL's form (WDLLW) also includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Tigres UANL won their last match.
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Necaxa's last 5 matches:
April 11, 2026: Querétaro (Away) L 1:3
April 04, 2026: Mazatlán (Home) W 2:1
March 21, 2026: Tijuana (Home) W 3:0
March 14, 2026: Puebla (Away) D 0:0
March 07, 2026: Pumas UNAM (Home) L 0:1
Tigres UANL's last 5 matches:
April 11, 2026: Guadalajara (Home) W 4:1
April 04, 2026: Tijuana (Away) L 0:1
March 23, 2026: Juárez (Away) L 1:2
March 15, 2026: Querétaro (Home) D 0:0
March 08, 2026: Monterrey (Home) W 1:0
Statistics
Necaxa scored an average of 1.32 goals per game this season and conceded 1.68 goals per game. At home, they scored 1.33 goals and conceded 1.07 goals per home game. Necaxa kept 3 clean sheets, both teams scored in 19 matches, and 18 matches ended with over 2.5 goals.
Tigres UANL showed a stronger offense with an average of 1.78 goals per game and 1.05 goals conceded. Away, they scored 1.73 goals and conceded 1.67 goals per away game. Tigres UANL achieved 13 clean sheets, both teams scored in 21 matches, and 19 matches ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres UANL secured 3 wins and there were 2 draws. Necaxa has not won any of the last 5 encounters. Tigres UANL scored 10 goals, while Necaxa scored 6 goals. The last meeting on October 18, 2025, ended in a 3:5 victory for Tigres UANL. Tigres UANL has been recently dominant in these matchups.
Key Players
For Necaxa, Tomás Badaloni (Attacker) with 7 goals and 2 assists this season, and Javier Ruiz (Midfielder) with 5 goals and 1 assist are important. Ricardo Monreal (Attacker) has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists so far. Ezequiel Unsain (Goalkeeper) is showing rising form.
For Tigres UANL, Juan Brunetta (Midfielder) stands out with 16 goals and 8 assists. Ozziel Herrera (Attacker) has collected 6 goals and 3 assists. André-Pierre Gignac (Attacker) scored 3 goals and 3 assists. Nahuel Guzmán (Goalkeeper) is also in rising form.
Goalkeepers
Ezequiel Unsain, Necaxa's goalkeeper, is showing rising form and has made 31 appearances this season. His counterpart, Nahuel Guzmán of Tigres UANL, has 37 appearances and is also showing rising form. Tigres UANL has kept 13 clean sheets this season, while Necaxa has 3.
Influences
Necaxa scored an average of 1.33 goals at home and conceded 1.07 goals per home game. Tigres UANL scored an average of 1.73 goals away and conceded 1.67 goals per away game.