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Liga MX

León - Juárez

04/19/2026, 03:06 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
León
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Juárez
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
LEÓJUÁ

León

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
+0.16
Juan Domínguez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1 goals/match)

Juárez

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juárez: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    León: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Juárez: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Juárez: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    León with David Ramírez: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

30%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • León's current strong form with three consecutive wins
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 48% probability
  • Juárez's defensive weakness in away games, conceding an average of 2.07 goals per match
Risk Factors
  • The mathematical model calculates a 30% probability for a draw
  • León's average season goal rate is only 0.97 goals per game
  • Limited data available for total duels in the last five games of both teams
Overview

León (9th place, 19 points) host Juárez (8th place, 23 points) in Liga MX on April 19, 2026, 4:06 AM. León need points to close the gap in the table, while Juárez aim to defend their lead.

Form

León's form shows a rising trend with LLWWW, including three consecutive wins. They have achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches.

Juárez, on the other hand, has a form of DWDDL, with one loss, three draws, and one win in their last five games.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

León averages 0.97 goals scored per game and concedes 1.77 goals on average per game this season. At home, they average 0.95 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per home game. Overall, León kept 6 clean sheets, both teams scored in 15 matches, and 16 games ended with over 2.5 goals.

Juárez averages 1.49 goals scored per game and concedes 1.66 goals on average. Away from home, the team averages 1.5 goals scored and concedes 2.07 goals. This season, they had 3 clean sheets, both teams scored in 28 matches, and 23 games ended with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In 5 previous head-to-head matches, León secured 3 wins, there was 1 draw, and Juárez won 1 time. León scored a total of 7 goals, while Juárez netted 6 goals. The last encounter was won by Juárez on September 27, 2025, with a 0:2 score. Overall, León is considered the recently dominant team in direct comparisons.

Key Players

For León, Ismael Díaz (8 goals, 4 assists, Avg Rating 7.02), Díber Cambindo (6 goals, 1 assist, Avg Rating 6.78), and Fernando Beltrán (2 goals, 2 assists, Avg Rating 6.92) are key players. Juan Domínguez (1G/1A) is not nominated.

For Juárez, Óscar Estupiñán (14 goals, 3 assists, Avg Rating 6.89), José Luis Rodríguez (4 goals, 8 assists, Avg Rating 7.02), and Jairo Torres (3 goals, 2 assists, Avg Rating 6.66) stand out.

Goalkeepers

León's goalkeeper Óscar García recorded 6 clean sheets in 25 appearances.

Juárez's goalkeeper Sebastián Jurado registered 3 clean sheets in 35 appearances.

Influences

León scored an average of 0.95 goals and conceded 1.0 goal per home game, indicating a slight home advantage defensively.

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