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Liga MX

Monterrey - Pachuca

04/19/2026, 01:05 AM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Monterrey
1.2
Total xG
2.3
Pachuca
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
MONPAC

Monterrey

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.14
Uros Djurdjevic on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Gerardo Arteaga on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Pachuca

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.16
Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.16
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.03
Alexéi Domínguez on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Monterrey with Carlos Salcedo: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Pachuca: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Pachuca with Alån Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez: 5.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Monterrey: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Monterrey: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

32%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Pachuca's excellent form with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games, contrasting with Monterrey's poor form of 0 wins and 3 losses
  • Pachuca's improved offense, currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.5), meets Monterrey's faltering goal production (1.3)
  • The historical record shows Pachuca's slight dominance in head-to-head matches, notably the 3:0 victory in their last encounter
Risk Factors
  • The injury to I. Fimbres Ochoa (Ankle Injury) weakens Monterrey's squad
  • The close probabilities (home win 36%, draw 32%, away win 33%) indicate an unpredictable game
  • Monterrey's current goal production is faltering (1.3 goals), which is below their season average (1.7 goals) and poses a risk
Overview

Monterrey (5th place, 31 points) host Pachuca (4th place, 28 points) in a Liga MX match on April 19, 2026, 2:05 AM

Pachuca are ahead of Monterrey in the table with fewer games played, indicating a stronger starting position

The mathematical analysis predicts a close match outcome with a home win probability of 36%, a draw of 32%, and an away win of 33%

Form

Monterrey currently shows poor form with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five matches (LDLLD)

Their last result was a draw

Pachuca, however, is in excellent form and remained unbeaten in their last five matches with 3 wins and 2 draws (WDDWW)

The team won their last two games

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Monterrey scored an average of 1.66 goals per game this season and conceded 1.46 goals

The team kept 10 clean sheets and both teams scored in 18 matches

In home games, the average is 1.63 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded

Pachuca has a season average of 1.39 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded, with 7 clean sheets and 18 matches where both teams scored

Away from home, Pachuca scored an average of 1.43 goals and conceded 1.43 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, there have been 3 wins for Pachuca and 2 wins for Monterrey

The goal difference is 7:10 in favor of Pachuca

The last encounter was won by Pachuca away with a score of 3:0 on July 13, 2025

Pachuca dominated the recent encounters

Key Players

For Monterrey, the following players are significant: Óliver Torres with 1 goal and 8 assists and a season average rating of 7.13

Lucas Ocampos contributed 5 goals and 6 assists and has an average rating of 6.98, with his form declining

JesĂșs Corona scored 4 goals and 4 assists and showed stable form in the last 5 games with one goal

For Pachuca, VĂ­ctor Alfonso GuzmĂĄn GuzmĂĄn stands out with 4 goals and 7 assists, scoring 4 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and showing rising form

Kenedy recorded 7 goals and 2 assists this season and was involved in 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

SalomĂłn RondĂłn scored 5 season goals, 2 of which were in the last 5 games, although his form is declining

Goalkeepers

Monterrey's goalkeeper Luis CĂĄrdenas played 20 games this season with an average rating of 7.03 and stable form

Pachuca's goalkeeper Carlos AgustĂ­n Moreno Luna played in 32 games and achieved an average rating of 6.9

Monterrey recorded 10 clean sheets this season, while Pachuca achieved 7 clean sheets

Influences

Monterrey showed a stable performance at home with an average of 1.63 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded

Pachuca scores an average of 1.43 goals and concedes 1.43 goals per away game

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