Liga MX
Guadalajara - Puebla
04/19/2026, 01:07 AM
Expected Goals
2.0
2.5
0.6
2:0
15%1:1
10%3:0
10%2:1
9%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Guadalajara
Puebla
League
The Lab
- 1Puebla with Nicolás Díaz: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Guadalajara: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Puebla: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Guadalajara: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Puebla: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
69%
Draw
22%
Away Win
9%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
91%
Away or Draw
31%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of a home win at 69%
- Form trend: Guadalajara shows significantly better form with three wins and one draw compared to the away team (two draws, three losses)
- Table position and matchup: Guadalajara (1st place) faces Puebla (16th place), with the home offense (Avg. 2.8 goals) meeting a vulnerable away defense (Avg. 2.23 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
- Puebla concedes an average of 2.23 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- Puebla plays with only 88% of their usual starting XI's goal threat due to missing key players
Overview
Guadalajara (1st place, 31 points) host Puebla (16th place, 13 points) in a Liga MX match on April 19, 2026, 3:07 AM. Guadalajara leads the league table, while Puebla is struggling in the lower half. The encounter pits a top team against a relegation candidate.
Form
Guadalajara shows mixed form with WWWDL in their last five matches, including three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their last game resulted in a loss against Tigres UANL. Puebla is in worse shape with LDLDL in their last five outings, with two draws and three losses, including a recent loss to León. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Guadalajara averages 1.79 goals per game and concedes 1.27 goals per game over the season. At home, they are offensively strong with an average of 1.79 home goals and only 0.89 goals conceded per home game. Puebla, on the other hand, has a season average of 1.03 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded. Their defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.23 goals per away game.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Guadalajara dominated with four wins, while Puebla secured one victory. Guadalajara scored a total of 8 goals to Puebla's 3. The last meeting on September 27, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for Guadalajara.
Key Players
For Guadalajara, attacker Armando González is in top form with 24 season goals and 1 assist (4 goals in the last 5 games). Roberto Alvarado, also an attacker, has 4 goals and 5 assists this season. Bryan Alonso González Oliván as a defender recently showed rising form with 1 goal and 3 assists in the last 5 games. For Puebla, attacker Emiliano Gómez is a key player with 7 season goals and 5 assists. Defender Fernando Monárrez contributed 1 goal and 3 assists. Attacker Kevin Velasco provided 3 assists this season, although his recent form has been declining.
Goalkeepers
Guadalajara's goalkeeper Raúl Rangel has played 33 games and recorded 10 clean sheets this season. For Puebla, goalkeeper Daniel Gutiérrez played 14 games and has 0 clean sheets. Puebla has a total of 6 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Guadalajara demonstrates particular strength at home, averaging 1.79 home goals scored and conceding only 0.89 goals per home game. No data on weather-related influences is available.